Intel's 18.18% Three-Day Rally Sparks Bullish Technical Outlook as Key Resistance Looms

Intel (INTC) Technical Analysis

Intel (INTC) surged 8.87% in the latest session, marking a 18.18% rally over three consecutive days. This sharp upward momentum, coupled with recent volatility, warrants a multi-faceted technical evaluation to assess trend strength, potential reversals, and key support/resistance levels.

Candlestick Theory

The recent three-day rally has formed a strong bullish pattern, with large-bodied green candles and minimal shadows, indicating aggressive buying pressure. Key support levels emerge at previous lows such as $24.05 (2025-09-12) and $23.5 (2025-08-21), while resistance is likely clustered near $33.99 (2025-09-25) and $34.25 (2025-09-25 high). A break above $34.25 could target the next resistance at $35.23 (2025-08-19 high), though a rejection here might trigger a pullback to test the $28.73–$29.34 range.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum aligns with the 50-day MA ($28.76) and 100-day MA ($23.86) currently below the 200-day MA ($24.55), suggesting a bearish bias in the intermediate term. However, the recent price surge has pushed the 50-day MA upward, narrowing the gap to the 200-day MA. A golden cross (50-day crossing above 200-day) would signal a bullish reversal, but this remains contingent on sustained volume and price action above $34.25.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows divergence: while the price continues higher, the MACD line has flattened, hinting at waning momentum. The KDJ indicator, with a J-value of 9 (2025-09-25), remains far below overbought levels (80), indicating no immediate exhaustion. However, the KDJ’s recent rise from 0.92 (2024-12-31) to 9 suggests a shift from oversold to neutral territory, aligning with the bullish price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to $31.21–$34.25. The current price of $33.99 sits near the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions. A break above this could trigger a continuation, but a retest of the $31.21 lower band would indicate a potential consolidation phase.

Volume-Price Relationship

Volume has surged on the recent rally, with the latest session’s volume (295.7 million shares) exceeding the 20-day average. This validates the strength of the upward move, though a slowdown in volume could signal a potential pause. Divergence between volume and price (e.g., lower volume on higher highs) would raise caution.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at ~70, nearing overbought territory. While this suggests a potential pullback, the RSI’s rapid ascent from 30–40 to 70 in three days indicates a strong, short-term bullish bias. Traders should monitor for a failure to break above 75, which might trigger a correction to the 60–65 range.

Fibonacci Retracement

Drawing retracement levels from the recent low ($24.05, 2025-09-12) to the high ($34.25, 2025-09-25) identifies key levels:

- 23.6% retracement: $31.21 (current lower band)

- 50% retracement: $29.15

- 61.8% retracement: $27.10

A breakdown below $31.21 would target the $29.15–$27.10 range, testing intermediate support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy—selling Intel when the KDJ indicator is overbought (J > 80)—would have generated no trades from 2022 to 2025, as the KDJ never exceeded 33.29 (2023-12-29). This highlights the strategy’s ineffectiveness for Intel, whose price movements are driven by fundamentals (e.g., AI investments, regulatory shifts) rather than short-term momentum. A modified approach incorporating Fibonacci retracements and RSI divergence might yield better results.