Institutions Hedge, Holders Stay Strong: Bitcoin's Big Move May Be Imminent

The upcoming $4.3 billion Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry is drawing heightened attention as market participants speculate on its potential impact on BTC’s price trajectory. With options expiries often acting as catalysts for price volatility, analysts are closely monitoring institutional positioning and technical indicators for signs of upward momentum. The current landscape is shaped by a confluence of factors, including strong long-term holder sentiment, rising institutional hedging activity, and favorable technical setups.

Bitcoin holders with coins aged between five and seven years—primarily those accumulated between 2017 and 2019—are maintaining their positions, suggesting a strong foundational support for BTC. According to analyst Cas Abbé, the Realized Cap of this cohort has decreased not due to selling but rather as a result of these coins aging into the seven-year and above category. This indicates that the same wallets continue to accumulate and hold BTC, demonstrating resilience through multiple market cycles, including halvings, bear markets, and speculative booms.

The Bitcoin options market is also showing signs of institutional involvement. The 1-month 25 Delta Skew, a metric often used to gauge demand for downside protection, has reached a record high. Analyst BitBull noted that this is not a sign of retail panic but rather institutions hedging their spot exposure. With the rise of ETFs and institutional investment products, large players are increasingly using puts to protect their positions, contributing to a stronger demand for downside protection while building long-term exposure.

Technically, Bitcoin has recently broken out of a multi-week downtrend, with multiple daily closes confirming the breakout above the key $113,500 level. The immediate resistance zone at this level previously acted as a support in August and has now shown signs of weakening. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin briefly rejected this resistance before quickly retracing back to retest the area, signaling a potential shift in its dominance.

Another key technical indicator is the divergence between price and RSI on the weekly chart. While price has made lower lows, the RSI has posted higher lows, a classic bear trap pattern. Merlijn The Trader emphasized this as a sign of potential trend reversal, with traders watching closely for confirmation. If Bitcoin can close above $113,500, the path for further gains appears clearer, though a pullback to $110,000 remains a likely near-term scenario if the level fails to hold.

Taken together, these factors suggest that the market is preparing for a potential upward shift in the coming weeks. The $4.3 billion options expiry is expected to add volatility, and the combined signals from holder behavior, institutional hedging, and technical indicators imply a favorable environment for a rally. If BTC sustains its current momentum, a move toward $120,000 could be within reach, particularly if institutional demand and retail participation continue to align.