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Zcash (ZEC) has demonstrated resilience amid a broader market downturn, surging 19% following a Black Friday crash triggered by renewed U.S.-China tariff tensions that erased over $20 billion from the crypto market [1]. On-chain and technical indicators suggest ZEC's upward momentum may persist, with a dense liquidation cluster forming near $300.56, a level where traders are likely to initiate new positions or close short bets [1]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also supports a bullish outlook, as the blue line remains above the orange signal line, a widely recognized buy-side signal [1].
ZEC's rally has been fueled by institutional interest and renewed demand for privacy coins. The launch of Grayscale's
Trust, which allows accredited investors to gain exposure without directly holding , has driven buying pressure [5]. Additionally, cross-chain adoption via protocols like THORSwap has enhanced liquidity and utility for shielded transactions [5]. ZEC's price surged from $34 in August to $280 in October, a 710% increase, pushing its market capitalization to nearly $4 billion [2]. Short liquidations have accelerated, with daily losses rising to $6.7 million from $4.69 million in a single day [2].
Technical analysis highlights both optimism and caution. While ZEC's MACD and liquidation heatmaps suggest a potential break above the psychological $300 level, overbought conditions-evidenced by an RSI of 80 and a Stochastic near 100-raise risks of a near-term correction [2]. Analysts warn that failing to maintain buying pressure around $270 could expose ZEC to short-term declines, potentially dragging the price below $234.74 or even $194.52 [1]. The token's recent accumulation phase, characterized by low volatility and a tight range between $28 and $54, aligns with the Wyckoff Theory's markup stage, but a shift to distribution could trigger a 40% pullback to $150 [3].
Market context remains mixed. The U.S.-China tariff landscape, marked by a temporary truce and layered duties, has created a volatile backdrop for global trade . However, ZEC's performance has diverged from broader market trends, with its price now trading above key moving averages (MA-20, MA-50, MA-200) and a 50% probability of further gains in the coming weeks [5]. Institutional inflows and cross-chain adoption are cited as key drivers, though analysts emphasize that overbought metrics and profit-taking could temper momentum [5].
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