Institutions Amass 2.88M BTC as Bitcoin Eyes $120K Rally

Bitcoin’s price trajectory has drawn renewed attention as a Japanese analyst forecasts a potential surge to $120,000, fueled by institutional demand and technical indicators. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, highlighted in a recent analysis that Bitcoin’s “crucial resistance” remains at $118,000, with a breakout expected to trigger a rally toward new all-time highs. This aligns with broader market dynamics, including sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a 30% increase in strategic reserve and ETF holdings since January 2025, now totaling 2.88 million BTCBitcoin faces resistance at $118K, but ETFs may push …^[1].

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen six consecutive days of inflows, accumulating $2.0 billion since Sept. 8, 2025Bitcoin faces resistance at $118K, but ETFs may push …^[1]. Glassnode reported that weekly net inflows turned positive, reflecting renewed institutional appetiteBitcoin faces resistance at $118K, but ETFs may push …^[1]. Meanwhile, BitcoinTreasuries.NET data shows that institutional and corporate entities have consolidated 2.88 million BTC by year-end, underscoring a shift in market structureBitcoin faces resistance at $118K, but ETFs may push …^[1]. Analysts attribute this to strategic accumulation by major players, which could amplify upward momentum as Bitcoin tests key resistance levels.

Technical analysis further supports the bullish outlook. Bitcoin has consolidated near $117,000, with critical resistance clusters between $117,850 and $118,000Bitcoin Consolidates at $117K, Technical Indicators Point Toward Potential $120K Breakout^[2]. A breakthrough here could extend the rally to $120,000, with further targets at $124,500 if momentum persistsBitcoin Consolidates at $117K, Technical Indicators Point Toward Potential $120K Breakout^[2]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, and the MACD indicator suggests positive momentum, though traders warn of potential consolidation before a decisive moveBitcoin Consolidates at $117K, Technical Indicators Point Toward Potential $120K Breakout^[2]. Market structure analysis also indicates a 70% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $120,000 within two weeks, driven by balanced MVRV Z-scores and a bullish futures basisBitcoin Consolidates at $117K, Technical Indicators Point Toward Potential $120K Breakout^[2].

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision adds another layer of volatility. With a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point cut priced in by CME FedWatch and PolymarketBitcoin jumps to $117,000 as markets price in Fed cuts^[3], traders are closely monitoring how central bank communication influences Bitcoin’s trajectory. A dovish outcome could catalyze a move toward $120,000, while a hawkish pivot might retest support at $116,550 or $115,800Bitcoin jumps to $117,000 as markets price in Fed cuts^[3]. Analysts like AlphaBTC anticipate a short-term rally to $118,000 ahead of the FOMC decision, followed by a potential pullbackBitcoin faces resistance at $118K, but ETFs may push …^[1].

Retail and institutional positioning further highlight market dynamics. Retail investors have driven the recent rally, with over 719,000 BTC flowing into small accounts (0.001–0.01 BTC range)Bitcoin Consolidates at $117K, Technical Indicators Point Toward Potential $120K Breakout^[2]. Conversely, large whale activity remains subdued, reducing immediate downward risk. Derivatives data reveals open interest at $85.5 billion and a long-to-short ratio skewed bullish, particularly on Binance. However, Bitcoin’s market dominance has dipped to 57.8%, signaling a temporary shift in capital toward altcoins.

The path forward hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to hold key support levels. A sustained break above $118,000 could trigger a parabolic move toward $133,550, while a breakdown below $115,800 risks a retest of the $112,500–$108,500 liquidity zone. Analysts caution that geopolitical or macroeconomic surprises could disrupt this trajectory, but current fundamentals—driven by ETF inflows, technical structure, and macroeconomic expectations—remain firmly bullish.