Institutional Solana token unlocks test market resilience in 2025

A major event in the cryptocurrency market is imminent as two prominent tokens face large-scale unlocks in early 2025. The Solana (SOL) ecosystem, currently the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is preparing for a significant liquidity event on March 1, when 1.12 million SOL tokens are expected to unlock. This event is part of a broader pattern, with over 15 million SOL tokens—valued at more than $7 billion—set to enter circulation across the months of February, March, and April 2025. The unlock schedule includes tokens previously acquired by institutional investors such as Galaxy Digital and Pantera Capital, raising concerns about potential sell pressure and its impact on Solana’s price trajectory.

The upcoming unlocks are occurring at a sensitive time for Solana. The network recently experienced a significant decline in value after the launch of the LIBRA meme coin, which was closely linked to a high-profile political controversy involving Argentine President Alberto Fernández. The event resulted in a loss of over $43 billion in market value within 24 hours, intensifying investor caution. Analysts, including anonymous X.com commentator artchick.eth, highlight that the unlock event could exacerbate these downward pressures, particularly if institutional holders choose to liquidate their positions. With Galaxy, Pantera, and Figure projected to realize over $30 billion, $10 billion, and $1.5 billion in unrealized gains, respectively, the likelihood of a coordinated sell-off remains a key risk.

Market dynamics already show signs of uncertainty. Over the past 24 hours, short positions have grown aggressively, with the short-to-long ratio in Solana futures reaching 4:1. This imbalance suggests that traders are increasingly betting on a decline in the price of SOL ahead of the unlock. On-chain data also reveals a sharp rise in open interest and a negative shift in funding rates, both of which are typically seen in bearish market sentiment. These metrics are further amplified by the fact that Solana’s price has already fallen by approximately 30% over the past month, indicating that a significant portion of the potential sell-off pressure may already be priced in.

Despite these concerns, some analysts and key figures in the Solana ecosystem are attempting to counterbalance the negative sentiment. Kelly Greer, a director at Galaxy Digital, has emphasized that the unlocked tokens represent only 2.31% of the total supply and are unlikely to overwhelm the market given Solana’s $36 billion 24-hour trading volume. Technical analysts, such as Deftsuo, argue that the market is nearing a point of maximum pessimism, with bearish sentiment potentially nearing a peak. They point to upcoming upgrades, such as the Firedancer upgrade and the potential launch of a Solana ETF, as catalysts for a potential rebound in 2025 and 2026.

The unlock event is not unique to Solana. In September 2025, a broader wave of token unlocks is expected to affect several major altcoins, including Solana (SOL), Aptos (APT), and the TRUMP token, with a combined unlock value exceeding $513 million. This surge in liquidity is anticipated to create significant selling pressure and amplify volatility, particularly in assets with weaker fundamentals or less robust liquidity. APT and TRUMP, for example, are expected to face heightened short-term risks due to their smaller market caps and less established ecosystems compared to Solana. The unlocking of $900 billion worth of TRUMP tokens—over 9% of the total supply—has also drawn attention, though its actual impact will depend on how much of the unlocked supply is sold and how the broader market responds.

As investors and traders prepare for these upcoming events, the focus remains on how market participants will react to the influx of newly unlocked tokens. Strategies such as dollar-cost averaging, setting stop-loss orders, and closely monitoring market sentiment have become essential tools in navigating the increased volatility. For Solana, the unlock event is being viewed as a critical test of investor confidence, particularly as the network continues to expand its ecosystem and compete with other major layer-1 blockchains.