Is Institutional Selling at 10 a.m. ET a Real Risk for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin's recurring price dips around 10 a.m. ET have sparked heated debates about whether institutional actors like Jane Street are manipulating the market or if these movements stem from structural forces like leverage-driven volatility and ETF mechanics. As the crypto market grapples with these questions, investors must dissect the interplay between market structure, gamma risk, and institutional exposure to assess real risks-and opportunities.

The 10 a.m. ET Dip: A Pattern or a Conspiracy?

Bitcoin's price frequently plunges around 10 a.m. ET, a phenomenon that has intensified speculation about coordinated selling. For instance, in November 2025, Bitcoin dropped from $110,646.91 on November 3 to $90,517.77 by November 27, with sharp declines observed daily around this time. Critics point to Jane Street, a major market maker and authorized participant for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, as a potential orchestrator of these dips. The theory suggests Jane Street profits by pushing prices lower to trigger leveraged long liquidations, then buying back Bitcoin at a discount. However, no regulator or exchange has confirmed such activity, and the firm's delta-neutral trading strategies-designed to avoid directional risk-undermine these claims.

Structural Forces: Gamma Risk and ETF Flows

The more plausible explanation lies in structural market dynamics. Bitcoin's volatility is amplified by options gamma risk, which measures the rate of change in hedging demand as options near expiration. In late December 2025, for example, a $415 million gamma flush-comprising $128 million on December 19 and $287 million on December 26-compressed Bitcoin's price between $85,000 and $90,000 as dealers hedged their positions. During this period, dealer gamma exposure was 13 times stronger than ETF inflows, illustrating how hedging pressures overshadowed institutional demand.

Simultaneously, ETF redemption flows exacerbate volatility. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which only trade during local market hours, require liquidity providers to buy or sell Bitcoin at 10 a.m. ET to create or redeem shares. This process floods the market with orders, often triggering sharp sell-offs as liquidity dries up. For example, in October 2025, $19–20 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within hours due to macroeconomic shocks and ETF-related selling, accelerating Bitcoin's drop from $125,000 to below $102,000.

Jane Street's Exposure: Opportunity or Risk?

Jane Street's $5.7 billion stake in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and its investments in mining firms like Hut 8 and Coinbase have fueled speculation about its influence. However, the firm's delta-neutral strategies-aimed at neutralizing directional risk-suggest it benefits from stable, not volatile, markets. Moreover, Bitcoin's price swings in late 2025 were driven by broader factors: leveraged longs (34% of liquidations) and shorts (66%) collapsed asymmetrically, indicating systemic leverage risks rather than coordinated selling.

Mitigating the Risk: A Strategic Approach

For investors, the key lies in hedging against structural volatility rather than fearing manipulation. Strategies include:
1. Monitoring Gamma Events: Track major options expiries (e.g., Deribit's December 26 expiry) to anticipate price compression and breakout opportunities.
2. Diversifying Exposure: Avoid over-leveraging long positions during high-gamma periods. Instead, consider delta-neutral strategies or hedging with put options.
3. Leveraging ETF Mechanics: Use ETF inflows/outflows as liquidity signals. For instance, the Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF (NGHT) offers overnight exposure, reducing reliance on volatile U.S. market hours.
4. Employing Stop-Loss Orders: Given the frequency of 10 a.m. dips, automated stop-loss orders can limit losses during sudden liquidations.

Conclusion

While the narrative of institutional manipulation is compelling, the data points to structural forces-gamma risk, ETF flows, and leverage-as the primary drivers of Bitcoin's 10 a.m. ET dips. Investors who understand these dynamics can navigate volatility with precision, turning perceived risks into strategic advantages. As the market evolves, staying informed about liquidity events and institutional positioning will remain critical to long-term success.