Institutional Sellers vs. ETF Hopes: XRP’s Price in Peril

XRP Sellers Remain in Control as Pending Spot ETF Decisions Could Affect Volume and Price

XRP’s price action in late September 2025 reflects a tug-of-war between institutional selling pressures and the optimism surrounding the debut of U.S.-listed XRP-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The token fell nearly 5% during the September 22–23 trading window, erasing approximately $11 billion in market value as the REX-Osprey ETF, the first U.S. XRP ETF, recorded a record $37.7 million in first-day trading volume. Despite the ETF’s launch, XRP closed at $2.83, struggling to hold key support levels amid heavy institutional dumping. Volume surged to 656.1 million during the session, six times the daily average, confirming large-scale profit-taking and a bearish trend channel forming with lower highs at $2.856 and lower lows at $2.83 .

Technical indicators underscore the bearish momentum. XRP’s price collapsed from $2.87 to $2.77 in a 24-hour span, creating a downtrend channel with critical resistance at $2.87 and support at $2.77. The token’s inability to reclaim $2.87, a level repeatedly rejected intraday, signals a breakdown risk toward $2.75–$2.70 if $2.82 fails. On-chain data reveals $812 million in whale wallet movements during the session, further amplifying short-term volatility. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 57.7%, reflecting capital rotation away from altcoins amid $1.7 billion in crypto derivatives liquidations, with 90% hitting long positions .

Pending regulatory decisions on spot XRP ETFs could reshape the token’s trajectory. Multiple applications from Grayscale, Bitwise, WisdomTree, and others are under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with final decisions expected between October 17 and November 14, 2025. If approved, these ETFs could unlock institutional inflows and redefine XRP’s market dynamics. Analysts note that Ethereum’s ETF debut in May 2025 saw $1.3 billion in assets under management (AUM) within 60 days, suggesting XRP could follow a similar trajectory if regulatory clarity materializes . However, derivatives markets show mixed signals: XRP futures open interest hit $1.8 billion, and implied volatility spiked to 95% ahead of key SEC deadlines, indicating anticipation of significant price swings .

Price forecasts vary widely depending on ETF outcomes. A bearish scenario projects XRP falling to $2.20–$2.26 if support levels below $2.77 fail, with machine-learning models estimating an average of $2.70 by September 30. A neutral-to-bullish case envisions a rebound to $3.30 if whales continue accumulating near $2.81–$2.82. Conversely, a bullish breakout above $3.00–$3.10 could trigger a rally to $3.70–$4.00, fueled by ETF approvals and institutional adoption. Long-term projections, such as xAI’s Grok model, suggest XRP could trade between $50–$100 by 2035 if ETFs drive sustained demand, translating to a $3–6 trillion market cap .

The October 2025 regulatory timeline remains a pivotal catalyst. The SEC’s decision on XRP ETFs could either validate the token’s institutional legitimacy or reignite regulatory uncertainty. Market watchers emphasize that approval would not guarantee immediate price surges but could establish a long-term baseline for demand. Institutional inflows, combined with Ripple’s legal clarity and cross-border payment utility, are seen as key drivers for XRP’s adoption. However, macroeconomic factors—such as the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path and global risk sentiment—will also influence ETF success. For now, XRP remains range-bound near $2.83, with traders closely monitoring October deadlines and on-chain flows for directional clues .