Institutional Prediction Markets Take Shape as Robinhood Acquires LedgerX

Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group have agreed to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, a regulated derivatives exchange previously owned by Miami International Holdings, in a strategic move to expand their foothold in the rapidly growing prediction markets sector according to reports. The transaction, which excludes Miami International Holdings' 10% stake, positions Robinhood to launch a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse focused on event-driven trading, with operations slated to begin in 2026 according to Reuters. LedgerX, once a unit of the defunct crypto exchange FTX, was acquired by Miami International Holdings in 2023 for $50 million and has since operated under its umbrella according to Reuters. The new venture will integrate MIAXdx, a LedgerX subsidiary with regulatory approvals as a Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, providing Robinhood and Susquehanna with a pre-licensed infrastructure to launch their platform according to CryptoNews.

The deal underscores the intensifying competition in the U.S. prediction markets space, where firms are leveraging regulatory clarity and surging retail interest to expand offerings. Robinhood, which already partners with Kalshi to provide event contracts on its platform, reported that customers traded 2.3 billion prediction contracts in the September quarter, a significant increase from prior periods. The company's vice president of futures and international operations, JB Mackenzie, emphasized the strong demand for prediction markets and the strategic value of infrastructure investment to enhance customer experience. Meanwhile, Susquehanna, a key market maker on Kalshi, will serve as a day-one liquidity provider for the new exchange, ensuring competitive trading conditions according to Bloomberg.

With the new exchange launching in 2026, the market anticipates a shift in volume and participation across prediction platforms. The regulatory environment has also shifted in favor of prediction markets. According to Reuters, a U.S. federal court's dismissal of the CFTC's prohibition on election betting in 2024 has catalyzed mainstream interest, with traditional financial players like Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and CME Group entering the space. ICE recently committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket, while CME and CBOE have outlined plans to introduce their own prediction market products. Kalshi, a pioneer in the sector, recently achieved a $11 billion valuation in a fundraising round, reflecting investor confidence in the model.

Robinhood's acquisition of LedgerX aligns with broader industry trends as prediction markets transition from niche crypto platforms to institutional-grade venues. The company's existing partnership with Kalshi has demonstrated the scalability of event-driven trading, with over 1 million accounts and 9 billion contracts traded in the past year. By controlling its own exchange infrastructure, Robinhood aims to reduce reliance on third-party platforms and offer more innovative products to both retail and institutional clients according to CryptoNews. The move also signals a shift in Robinhood's strategy, as it diversifies beyond its core retail brokerage business into futures and derivatives markets.