Institutional Outflows Push HBAR to 2-Month Low Amid Bitcoin Downturn
HBAR, the native token of the HederaHBAR-- network, plummeted to a two-month low amid heightened market volatility as BitcoinBTC-- (BTC) fell below $112,000. Over a 23-hour period from September 21 to 22, HBARHBAR-- dropped 6.29% from $0.24 to $0.22, driven by surging institutional selling pressure and a trading volume spike of 137.11 million—nearly triple the daily average [1]. The decline was accompanied by a 9.7% trading range expansion, far exceeding monthly volatility averages. Bears reinforced resistance at $0.24, but bulls briefly reclaimed $0.22 in the final hour, fueled by a 6.21 million volume surge before trading activity collapsed to zero [1].
The token’s sharp downturn is closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. HBAR maintains a correlation of 0.92–0.95 with BTCBTC--, meaning its price trajectory is heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s broader market dynamics [2]. Analysts highlight that Bitcoin’s recent slide has amplified selling pressure on HBAR. Historical data show HBAR has averaged 10% monthly declines in September, with a median drop of 5%, aligning with current technical signals of weakening support levels [2]. Institutional outflows, reflected in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, have dominated for two months, exacerbating the bearish trend [2].
Technical analysis underscores the fragility of HBAR’s recovery attempts. A 1% rebound in the final hour of the September 22 session failed to sustain momentum, with zero trading volume in the last three minutes indicating a temporary market pause [1]. Key resistance levels at $0.24 and $0.22 have been repeatedly tested, but sustained buying interest remains absent. If HBAR breaks below $0.21, it could target $0.205, extending its drawdown and reinforcing bearish momentum [2]. Conversely, a successful breakout above $0.248 could signal renewed bullish sentiment, though this depends on Bitcoin stabilizing and broader market conditions improving [3].
Market participants are divided on HBAR’s near-term prospects. While some argue that whale accumulation and improved investor sentiment could trigger a rebound to $0.230, others caution that continued outflows and Bitcoin’s weakness could push the token below $0.219 [2]. The token’s quarterly performance in 2025 has been mixed, with a rare positive Q3 marking a potential turning point if it closes in the green. However, short-term volatility and Bitcoin’s trajectory remain critical factors [2]. Analysts note that a sustained BTC rebound above $117,000 could provide HBAR with a catalyst for recovery, but this hinges on macroeconomic stability and reduced institutional selling [3].
The broader crypto market’s sensitivity to institutional flows and sentiment-driven reversals is evident in HBAR’s case. The token’s liquidity-driven dynamics highlight how rapidly bearish pressure can shift to opportunistic buying, though such reversals remain short-lived without sustained volume. With Bitcoin ETF outflows and Fed policy uncertainty looming, HBAR’s path to recovery is contingent on resolving these macro risks. Investors are advised to monitor key levels, including $0.210 and $0.235, as well as Bitcoin’s performance, to gauge the next phase of market action [1][2].
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