Institutional Moves and Market Forces Set SUI's $10 Fate

SUI, the native token of the Sui blockchain, has drawn attention in recent weeks due to a confluence of institutional activity, technical developments, and growing market sentiment. At the center of the discussion is the token's potential to break out of a months-long consolidation phase and reach a $10 price target. Multiple analysts and traders have highlighted the significance of the $4.3 resistance level as a key threshold for bullish momentum. The token currently trades around $3.3–$3.4, still 37% below its January 2025 all-time high of $5.35 [1].

Several developments underpin the bullish narrative for SUI. Institutional demand has surged, with SUI Group Holdings, a publicly traded company, recently adding 20 million SUI tokens to its holdings. This brings its total holdings to over 101.7 million SUI, valued at approximately $332 million at the time of the announcement [1]. The accumulation by a listed entity underscores confidence in the token’s fundamentals and could exert a positive influence on price by reducing circulating supply. This move aligns with broader market trends where institutional participation is increasingly shaping crypto asset prices.

On the technical front, the token has been forming patterns that suggest a potential breakout. Analysts have identified an ascending triangle on the weekly chart, with resistance near $4.3 and a rising support trendline. A decisive move above this level could set the stage for a rally toward $10, with some optimistic projections already eyeing that target [1]. The token’s on-chain metrics further support this potential. SUI’s total token volume has reached $600 billion, with a 7.76% increase recorded in the past 30 days [1]. Additionally, the token’s “social dominance,” a measure of discussion frequency, has climbed to near the top 10, indicating heightened brand visibility and investor engagement [1].

However, not all signals are unambiguously bullish. The token has also shown signs of weakness, particularly on the 4-hour chart, where it remains trapped in a descending triangle. This pattern suggests that the price could test $3.42 or even the $3 level before finding a bottom [1]. Open interest and funding rates have also seen a decline, dropping 30% since late July and reaching 0.0099% as of September 2025, according to Coinglass data [2]. This reduction in speculative activity could signal caution among traders, highlighting the dual potential for either a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown.

The price action is further complicated by macro events, such as the large token unlocks on August 1 and September 1, which released approximately 44 million tokens each, worth around $159 million and $143 million, respectively [2]. The increased supply has weighed on investor sentiment, causing a 19.7% drop from the August high of $4.16 to the current price of $3.34. Despite these challenges, developments in the DeFi space and strategic partnerships, such as the recent collaboration with TRM Labs, could provide SUI with renewed momentum. The total value locked (TVL) in SUI-based DeFi protocols has grown to $3.5 billion, a significant increase from $3 billion in just two months [2].

Looking ahead, the market is closely monitoring the token’s ability to defend key support levels. Analysts have highlighted the importance of the $3.15–$3.20 zone, with a successful hold potentially leading to a rally toward $5.00 and even $10.00 [3]. On-chain liquidity has also surged, with over $780 million in open interest positioned for a directional move. This level of positioning suggests a high-stakes moment for SUI, as a failure to break out could see the price retest lower accumulation ranges. Conversely, a strong breakout could trigger a multi-fold rally, driven by institutional buying, growing DeFi adoption, and positive network fundamentals.

Source:

[1] SUI Momentum Builds as Social Dominance and Volumes ... (https://beincrypto.com/sui-momentum-builds-as-social-dominance-and-volumes-surge/)

[2] SUI price holds support at $3, is a rally to $5 next? (https://crypto.news/sui-price-holds-support-at-3-is-a-rally-to-5-next/)

[3] SUI Tests Its Make-or-Break $3.15 Support; Breakout Being Next (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/46702-sui-price-make-or-break-pattern-10-dollar-target)