Institutional Exodus Casts Shadow Over Bitcoin’s $90K Survival

Source: [1] Bitcoin Bears Target $90K as BTC ETFs See $582M Outflow (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/01/09/bitcoin-bears-target-90k-as-btc-etfs-see-582m-outflow/)

[2] Bitcoin (BTC USD) Price Prediction: Rally to $190k or a Crash to … (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/20/bitcoin-btc-usd-price-prediction-rally-to-190k-or-a-crash-to-90k/)

[3] Bitcoin Price Eyes 90K rally at Blackrock-led ETFs Buy $512M (https://coingape.com/markets/bitcoin-price-eyes-90k-rally-at-blackrock-led-etfs-buy-512m-btc-3-days-before-us-fed-decision/)

[4] Bitcoin struggles near $90K as US tariff fears spook … (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-limited-etf-institutional-investment-tariff-concerns)

[5] Market Sentiment, Bitcoin ETFs: Are We In a Bull or Bear Market … (https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/market-sentiment-bitcoin-etfs-are-we-in-a-bull-or-bear-market-insights-from-nexos-kristian-haralampiev/)

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Bitcoin ETFs entered a "slowdown" phase in late 2024, with net outflows totaling $582 million in January 2025 alone, according to data from TheCryptoBasic. The outflow was led by Fidelity’s FBTC ($258.69 million), Ark Invest ($148.3 million), and BlackRock ($124 million), signaling waning institutional confidence in the asset class. This trend aligns with broader market jitters, as Bitcoin’s price fell below $94,000 and tested critical support levels near $92,654. Analysts attribute the outflows to macroeconomic uncertainties, including U.S. tariff announcements and shifting risk sentiment, which have prompted institutional investors to scale back exposure.

Price action on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart reveals a bearish reversal from a key supply zone near $102,557, with the RSI showing a bullish divergence as it hovers above oversold levels. However, bearish crossovers between the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA) indicate ongoing downward pressure. Technical analysts suggest that a breakdown below $92,654 could push Bitcoin toward the psychological $90,000 level, while a recovery above $95,119 might rekindle bullish momentum.

The decline in ETF inflows contrasts with earlier optimism. In March 2025, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $512 million inflow over three days, driven by BlackRock-led purchases and a favorable Federal Reserve rate pause. At that time, Bitcoin surged 4% to a 10-day high of $85,900, fueled by institutional demand and a short squeeze near $85,000. However, recent data from CoinTelegraph shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs faced a $2.6 billion net outflow in late February 2025, marking the fourth consecutive week of negative flows. This shift coincided with Trump-era tariff announcements, which exacerbated concerns over inflation and economic stability.

Market sentiment remains mixed. Nexo’s Kristian Haralampiev highlighted that while Bitcoin ETFs have stabilized the market to some extent, their impact has been "mild," with BTC consolidating near $63,000 in October 2024. The Fear & Greed Index, skewed toward greed, reflects lingering optimism, but Haralampiev cautioned that geopolitical tensions and gold’s record highs pose bearish risks. He noted that ETFs act as a "double-edged sword," providing liquidity but potentially diluting crypto’s speculative appeal.

Price predictions vary widely. A bullish analysis from TheCoinRepublic posits that Bitcoin could rally to $190,000 if it holds the $115,500 support level, based on historical trends. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,440 could trigger a dip to $93,600, according to analyst Ali Martinez. Meanwhile, Coingape emphasized that Bitcoin’s path to $90,000 hinges on overcoming resistance at $92,500 and managing short-term volatility from macroeconomic factors.

Institutional demand and macroeconomic conditions will likely dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and potential rate cuts could bolster risk assets, but Trump-era tariffs and global trade uncertainties may counteract this. For now, Bitcoin ETFs remain a barometer of institutional sentiment, with outflows suggesting a bearish bias until macroeconomic clarity emerges.

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