Institutional Buyers and Whales Clash as Bitcoin Hovers Near Critical Thresholds

Bitcoin faces significant liquidation risks as market exposure remains highly sensitive to price movements below $110,000 and above $114,000, according to data from Coinglass. At the time of analysis, $1.33 billion worth of long positions are at risk of being liquidated if the price dips below $110,000. Conversely, if Bitcoin surpasses $114,000, $1.19 billion in short positions may be triggered, compounding volatility in the near term.

This exposure is part of a broader context of market uncertainty as Bitcoin trades within a tight range between $110,000 and $111,000. Recent data highlights a notable sell-off from Bitcoin “whales,” with over 114,920 BTC—worth approximately $12.7 billion—offloaded in the past 30 days. According to CryptoQuant, these large investors have reduced holdings by more than 100,000 BTC, signaling heightened risk aversion and potential downward pressure on the asset. Analysts have attributed the recent price dip below $108,000 to whale activity, with continued reductions in their holdings expected to influence short-term price structure.

Despite the sell-off, institutional demand remains a counterbalance. Institutional accumulation of Bitcoin has increased during the same period, helping to stabilize the market against the bearish pressure from large investors. Nick Ruck of LVRG Research noted that while whale activity may cap near-term price momentum, underlying demand driven by corporate buying and ETF inflows supports market resilience. However, macroeconomic events, such as the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision, could play a decisive role in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Technical analysis also points to potential price inflection points. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that a 10% pullback from current levels would bring the price to around $100,000, a historically significant support level. Popular trader ZYN noted that Bitcoin has typically found a floor at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which currently aligns with the $100,000 mark. This level is considered a “worst-case” scenario by some analysts, followed by a potential 50% recovery above $150,000 if bulls regain control. Meanwhile, resistance at $112,000 and $113,000 remains critical for determining whether a bullish or bearish trend takes hold.

The crypto treasury sector is also experiencing turbulence as premiums of digital asset treasury (DAT) firms are narrowing. According to NYDIG, companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet are seeing their stock prices close the gap with net asset values (NAV), even as Bitcoin reaches new highs. This compression is attributed to investor anxiety over supply unlocks, corporate strategy shifts, increased share issuance, and a lack of differentiation in treasury strategies. Greg Cipolaro of NYDIG emphasized the need for share buyback programs to support prices and counteract potential selling pressures once shares become fully tradeable.

Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory remains relatively resilient. The asset has only corrected 13% from its mid-August all-time high, a significantly shallower pullback compared to previous cycles. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s one-year moving average, which has steadily risen from $52,000 to $94,000, could soon surpass $100,000, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, the market is not without risks, and traders are advised to remain cautious as key support and resistance levels are tested.