Institutional Bulls Bet on Bittensor Despite Overwhelming Bearish Technicals

Bittensor (TAO) has maintained its technical wave structure despite a 2% decline in a volatile market environment, with analysts noting mixed signals from technical indicators and market sentiment. As of October 9, 2025, TAO traded at $325.33, reflecting a 3.59% drop in 24 hours and a 44.24% decline year-to-date Bittensor is Predicted to Drop to $ 252.10 By Oct 14, 2025^[1]. The token's 1-month volatility stands at 6.11, significantly lower than its 50.46% 30-day volatility earlier in the year .

Technical analysis reveals a bearish outlook, with 19 out of 28 indicators signaling downward pressure, including the Stochastic RSI (14) at 96.25 (SELL) and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $355.24 (SELL) Bittensor is Predicted to Drop to $ 252.10 By Oct 14, 2025^[1]. However, the 200-day EMA remains bullish at $369.93, and the RSI (14) of 54.16 suggests a neutral stance Bittensor is Predicted to Drop to $ 252.10 By Oct 14, 2025^[1]. Key support levels at $327.12, $317.04, and $308.48 are critical for short-term stability, while resistance levels at $345.77 and above could trigger further consolidation Bittensor is Predicted to Drop to $ 252.10 By Oct 14, 2025^[1].

Market sentiment remains polarized. The Fear & Greed Index, at 70 (Greed), indicates overconfidence among investors, a potential precursor to overvaluation Bittensor is Predicted to Drop to $ 252.10 By Oct 14, 2025^[1]. Meanwhile, whale activity on platforms like CryptoQuant shows increased Futures Average Order Size, hinting at accumulation near $345 Bittensor [TAO] climbs 10%, holds near $345 - AMBCrypto^[2]. This contrasts with cooling volume metrics, which suggest short-term profit-taking Bittensor [TAO] climbs 10%, holds near $345 - AMBCrypto^[2].

Institutional interest has bolstered optimism. Digital Currency Group (DCG) launched Yuma Asset Management, a $10 million fund focused on scaling Bittensor subnets, signaling confidence in the decentralized AI network's long-term potential Bittensor (TAO) Rises 10%, Holds Near $345 – Rally Coming ONLY …^[3]. Additionally, TAO's recent 28% rebound from a key support level has drawn attention to its Elliott Wave structure, with analysts monitoring a potential breakout above $500 .

Despite the bearish technical bias, some indicators suggest resilience. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $334.07 and the 200-day SMA at $344.61 remain above the current price, reflecting lingering bullish momentum Bittensor is Predicted to Drop to $ 252.10 By Oct 14, 2025^[1]. However, a failure to hold above $399 could invalidate the bullish case, pushing TAO toward $316 .

The market's reaction to Bittensor's dTAO governance upgrade in February 2025 underscores its independence from broader crypto trends. While BTC and ETH remained stable during the upgrade, TAO's volatility spiked as investors navigated new subnet token mechanics . This event highlighted the token's susceptibility to project-specific news, a factor that could amplify future swings.

Looking ahead, TAO's trajectory remains contingent on liquidity, governance stability, and subnet adoption. With a halving event scheduled for December 2025, which will halve mining emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO per day, the market will closely watch whether reduced supply pressures align with increased subnet activity to drive price recovery .