Institutional Bitcoin Holdings Rise 0.15% as Retail Activity Declines

Institutions are increasingly driving Bitcoin's dominance as retail investor activity wanes. This shift is evident in the recent on-chain data, which shows a significant rise in institutional holdings and a corresponding decrease in retail participation. The trend suggests that institutional investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin's long-term prospects, while retail investors are taking a more cautious approach.

Semler Scientific, a Nasdaq-listed firm, appointed Joe Burnett as Director of Bitcoin Strategy. The company also outlined an aggressive Bitcoin roadmap, aiming to hold 10,000 BTC by end-2025, 42,000 by 2026, and 105,000 by 2027. It plans to use equity, debt financing, and operational cash flow to achieve this. Cardone Capital, a $5 billion fund, acquired 150 BTC worth $15.6 million, expanding its Bitcoin exposure. These developments point to growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve. Institutions are signaling strong conviction, even as retail investors hesitate.

Large wallets holding 10 or more BTC rose by 231 in just 10 days, marking a 0.15% increase in large wallets, now totaling over 152,120. Conversely, smaller wallets between 0.001 and 10 BTC dropped by 37,465, a 0.16% decrease, shrinking total small wallet holders to around 23.77 million. This divergence in wallet activity reflects a shift in market control toward high-volume institutional investors.

Ethereum is also seeing significant institutional interest, with aggressive accumulation in OTC markets. This may lead to supply constraints if accumulation continues. Institutions seem to understand Ethereum’s long-term value ahead of the ETF wave. Additionally, Ethereum’s scarcity may trigger a broader altcoin rally. As ETH becomes harder to obtain, capital may rotate into high-potential alternatives. This could signal a major counterattack from the altcoin market, riding on institutional flows and reduced retail activity.

Despite positive developments, the demand for Bitcoin has seen a notable decline, with apparent demand growth plummeting by nearly 50% from its May peak. This drop is accompanied by short-term holders shedding a substantial amount of Bitcoin since late May, indicating a reduction in new investor participation. Additionally, whale accumulation has decreased significantly, from 3.9% monthly growth in late May to just 1.7% currently. This institutional withdrawal signals that the sophisticated money driving sustainable rallies has stepped back from aggressive accumulation.

The retail capitulation is equally concerning, with short-term holders reducing their Bitcoin positions by 800,000 BTC since May 27. This cohort, representing new market entrants and momentum-driven buyers, has declined by 15% from 5.3 million to 4.5 million BTC. Since these participants typically provide the demand needed to absorb profit-taking from long-term holders, their withdrawal threatens to create a feedback loop where reduced buyer interest leads to increased selling pressure.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s current position shows a longer-term bullish structure and near-term corrective pressure that could determine whether the $92,000 scenario materializes. The weekly Wyckoff accumulation analysis suggests Bitcoin remains within the “Expansion” phase of a major market cycle, having completed what appears to be a five-wave Elliott sequence with potential targets in the $140,000-150,000 range if the pattern continues developing as anticipated. However, the recent demand deterioration creates tension with this optimistic scenario, suggesting that Bitcoin may need to retest the “Manipulation” phase around $85,000-90,000 before resuming its advance.

The biweekly super cycle analysis provides crucial context by positioning Bitcoin within its established logarithmic growth channel that has guided price action since 2017. Current trading around $104,700 places Bitcoin in the early-to-middle stages of its 2025 bull cycle. The asset has successfully broken above previous cycle highs and established new all-time territory. The historical pattern overlay demonstrates remarkable consistency across different cycles, suggesting that while near-term corrections are natural and healthy, the longer-term trajectory remains intact with potential targets in the $200,000-300,000 range.

The hourly Elliott Wave structure provides the most granular view of immediate price action and reveals a complex corrective pattern that supports the bearish thesis. The wave count suggests Bitcoin may have completed a primary five-wave advance and entered the early stages of an A-B-C corrective sequence. On weakening volume and momentum, the asset broke below key support around $107,000. This micro-structure analysis indicates that sustained breaks below $100,000 could trigger algorithmic selling and accelerate the move toward the $92,000 target, representing completion of a larger degree wave two correction.

Overall, technical indicators show a high-probability scenario in which Bitcoin tests the $92,000 Traders’ On-chain Realized Price level, which has historically provided robust support during bull markets. However, the longer-term cycle analysis suggests this potential correction would represent a healthy pullback within an intact bull market rather than a fundamental breakdown, potentially offering an attractive accumulation opportunity before the next major advance toward cycle highs. The key inflection point remains whether Bitcoin can hold above $100,000 or if demand continues deteriorating sufficiently to trigger the deeper correction scenario.