Institutional Bet: Why ONDO's Breakout Signals Big Moves in 2025

Ondo (ONDO) has recently confirmed a breakout from a bullish pennant pattern, marking a significant shift in its short-term price trajectory. The token surged over 12% to an intraday high of $1.06 on September 10, before settling at $1.01. While still down 9% from its August peak, the move signals renewed buying interest. This breakout aligns with a broader bullish technical setup, as ONDO is currently trading above the 20-day exponential moving average, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a positive crossover, suggesting a favorable environment for further gains.

The price movement was driven, in part, by the total value locked (TVL) in Ondo Finance, which has now exceeded $1.5 billion. This growth has been largely fueled by the rapid adoption of Ondo’s new platform for tokenizing U.S. stocks and ETFs, which attracted over $105 million in TVL within a week of launch. As more assets are tokenized and locked within the protocol, the selling pressure on the ONDO token is expected to decrease, supporting further price appreciation. The platform’s success has also drawn attention from institutional players, further reinforcing the bullish narrative.

Institutional credibility has also been bolstered by Ondo’s recent hiring of Peter Curley as its new Head of Global Affairs. Curley, a former official at the U.S. SEC and FDIC, brings extensive regulatory and financial market experience to the project. His appointment follows a series of strategic partnerships with major financial institutions, including Fidelity and WisdomTree, which have positioned Ondo as a key player in the tokenized asset space. These developments have not only enhanced the project’s institutional profile but also attracted increased whale activity, with significant accumulation of ONDO observed among large holders in the past two days.

From a technical perspective, ONDO’s next immediate upside target is estimated to be between $1.20 and $1.25, in line with the measured move projection from the breakout. A successful move past this level could open the door to higher targets, including $1.36, which represents the full projected move based on the pattern’s structure. However, a drop below the 20-day EMA at $0.94 could invalidate the bullish setup and trigger a retest of the $0.90 support level. Analysts are closely monitoring the resistance at $1.17, which has previously acted as a key price level, for signs of sustained momentum.

Looking ahead, the 2025 price forecast for ONDO suggests a price range between $0.76 and $2.55, with a stretched target of $5.53 if the token surpasses critical Fibonacci levels and institutional adoption continues to accelerate. Key factors expected to influence the token’s trajectory include further growth in TVL, regulatory developments, and the success of Ondo’s tokenized asset initiatives. While the short-term outlook remains bullish, traders and investors are advised to monitor market sentiment and volume for signs of continuation or reversal.