Inspired Entertainment: Assessing the 2027 Re-Rating Opportunity Amid Credit Challenges

The story of Inspired Entertainment (INSE) is one of resilience amid adversity. Over the past two years, the company has navigated a turbulent landscape marked by declining revenue, regulatory headwinds, and a high-debt burden. Yet, beneath the surface of its 2024 financial struggles lies a strategic pivot toward digital innovation and operational efficiency that could position it for a meaningful re-rating by 2027. This analysis examines Inspired's structural turnaround efforts, its evolving credit profile, and the catalysts that could unlock long-term value for investors.

A Stabilized Credit Profile and Strategic Refinancing

Inspired's 2024 financial report revealed an 8% revenue decline and a 300-basis-point drop in EBITDAR margins compared to 2022 levels. These challenges prompted urgent action. In Q2 2025, the company executed a comprehensive debt restructuring, issuing £270 million in senior secured notes and securing a new £17.8 million revolving credit facility to replace all existing debt. This refinancing extended maturities, reduced immediate financial pressure, and signaled to creditors a commitment to deleveraging. Fitch Ratings affirmed Inspired's issuer default rating at 'B-' in July 2025 but removed it from negative rating watch, reflecting stabilization in its credit profile.

The refinancing was not merely a stopgap measure. By prioritizing long-term flexibility, Inspired has created a foundation for growth. For instance, Q3 2025 results showed Interactive segment revenue rising 48% year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA up 55%. This segment, which includes digital offerings like Hybrid Dealer and localized Virtual Sports content, now represents a core growth engine. Management's decision to divest the UK holiday parks business further underscores a strategic shift toward higher-margin digital operations.

Structural Turnaround: Digital-First Strategy and Operational Leverage

Inspired's pivot to digital is more than a trend-it is a structural transformation. The Interactive segment's performance in 2025 demonstrates the scalability of digital platforms. For example, the company's partnership with Gaming Arts to expand into land-based markets and its five-year deal with Jenningsbet to deploy 570 Vantage terminals highlight its ability to blend digital innovation with physical presence. These initiatives are not isolated; they reflect a broader strategy to leverage technology for cross-market penetration.

Operational efficiency is another pillar of the turnaround. Inspired's 2025 share repurchase program and asset sales, such as the UK holiday parks divestiture, have accelerated deleveraging. By the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a 12% year-over-year revenue increase to $86.2 million, driven by Interactive's 48% growth. These results suggest that Inspired is not only surviving but adapting to a competitive landscape where digital agility is paramount.

2027 Re-Rating Catalysts: Margins, Revenue, and Analyst Optimism

The question for investors is whether Inspired's current trajectory can translate into a re-rating by 2027. Analysts are cautiously optimistic. Texas Capital Securities projects a 1,000-basis-point rise in EBITDA margins by 2026, driven by cost discipline and digital scale. If sustained, this margin expansion could fuel a 25% reduction in capital expenditures, further bolstering free cash flow.

Revenue growth is another key catalyst. Inspired's 2027 revenue is forecasted to reach $9.17 billion, a figure that assumes continued momentum in North America and the UK. This projection is supported by the company's focus on high-growth markets and its ability to capture market share through localized content. For example, Virtual Sports offerings tailored to regional preferences have already driven Interactive's EBITDA growth.

Analyst price targets also suggest upside potential. The average one-year target of $13.25 implies a 44.97% upside from current levels, with a "Buy" consensus from four analysts. While these targets are forward-looking, they reflect confidence in Inspired's ability to execute its digital-first strategy and achieve operational leverage.

Risks and Realities

No re-rating story is without risks. Regulatory challenges in Brazil and U.K. retail softness remain headwinds. Additionally, Inspired's 2025 forecasted loss underscores the fragility of its near-term financial position. However, these risks are being mitigated by the company's proactive debt management and focus on high-margin segments. The key will be maintaining momentum in the Interactive segment while scaling partnerships like the one with Gaming Arts.

Conclusion: A Long-Term Bet on Digital Resilience

Inspired Entertainment's journey is far from over. Its 2025 refinancing and digital pivot have stabilized its credit profile, but the true test lies in sustaining growth through 2027. The company's ability to expand margins, capitalize on digital trends, and execute strategic partnerships positions it as a candidate for a re-rating. For investors with a long-term horizon, Inspired's structural turnaround offers a compelling case: a company transforming from a debt-laden operator into a digital innovator with scalable, high-margin offerings.