Inspire Medical's INSP Soars 17%: A Bullish Surge or a Volatile Rebound?

Summary
• Inspire Medical (INSP) surges 17.01% to $86.25, marking its highest intraday price since 2024.
• Q3 2025 earnings report highlights $224.5M revenue, 10% YoY growth, and 85.8% gross margin.
• CEO Tim Herbert reaffirms $900–$910M annual revenue guidance, citing Inspire V system adoption.
• Options chain sees heavy volume in November 80–95 strike calls, signaling bullish sentiment.

Inspire Medical’s stock has erupted 17% in a single session, driven by a robust Q3 earnings report and strategic product updates. The surge follows a 60% decline from its 52-week high of $216.01, raising questions about sustainability. With the healthcare sector under mixed pressure, investors are scrutinizing whether this rebound reflects durable momentum or a short-term rally.

Q3 Earnings and Inspire V Adoption Fuel Rally
Inspire Medical’s 17% surge stems from its Q3 2025 earnings report, which revealed $224.5M in revenue (up 10% YoY) and 85.8% gross margin. The company highlighted the Inspire V system’s 20% faster surgical times and 100% successful implant rates in clinical trials, accelerating U.S. adoption. CEO Tim Herbert’s guidance upgrade—from $0.40–$0.50 to $0.90–$1.00 diluted EPS—underscored confidence in the Inspire V rollout. Additionally, $50M in share repurchases and a 37% YoY international revenue increase reinforced investor optimism.

Healthcare Equipment Sector Mixed as Medtronic Slides
The broader healthcare equipment sector showed mixed performance, with Medtronic (MDT) down 0.21% despite INSP’s surge. While Inspire’s rally reflects product-specific optimism, Medtronic’s decline highlights sector-wide volatility amid regulatory scrutiny and pricing pressures. The sector’s average P/E of 201x (INSP’s 201x) suggests INSP’s valuation is in line with peers, though its earnings-driven rebound outpaces most sector constituents.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on INSP’s Volatility
• 200-day average: 131.29 (well below current price)
• RSI: 37.6 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -1.77 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 86.25, above upper band of 83.29

INSP’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition amid a long-term downtrend. Key support lies at the 200-day MA (131.29) and 77.68 middle Bollinger Band. Aggressive bulls may target a break above $89.44 (intraday high), while cautious traders should watch for a retest of the 79.35 intraday low. No leveraged ETF data is available for context.

Top Option 1: INSP20251121C85
• Strike: $85, Expiration: 2025-11-21, IV: 52.80%, Leverage: 17.34%, Delta: 0.596, Theta: -0.216, Gamma: 0.038, Turnover: 121,773
• IV (Implied Volatility): High, indicating strong market expectations.
• Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price changes.
• Theta: High time decay, ideal for short-term plays.
• Gamma: High sensitivity to price movement, amplifying gains if INSP rallies.
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit.
• Payoff at 5% Upside (86.25 → 90.56): $5.56 per contract. This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a potential break above $89.44.

Top Option 2: INSP20251121C90
• Strike: $90, Expiration: 2025-11-21, IV: 70.81%, Leverage: 21.14%, Delta: 0.441, Theta: -0.228, Gamma: 0.029, Turnover: 4,466
• IV: Elevated, reflecting bullish sentiment.
• Delta: Lower sensitivity, reducing risk if the rally stalls.
• Theta: High time decay, suitable for aggressive short-term bets.
• Gamma: Moderate, offering some upside if INSP surges.
• Turnover: Sufficient liquidity for active trading.
• Payoff at 5% Upside (86.25 → 90.56): $0.56 per contract. This call is a high-risk, high-reward play for those expecting a sharp post-earnings breakout.

Trading Hook: If $89.44 holds, INSP20251121C85 offers a 13%+ return on a 5% price move. Aggressive bulls may consider INSP20251121C90 into a break above $90.

Backtest Inspire Medical Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-backtest module that visualises how Inspire Medical (INSP.N) behaves after any trading day on which its intraday high price jumps at least 17 percent above the previous day’s close (2022-01-01 → 2025-11-04).Key take-aways (summary of the stats plotted in the module):1. Sample size: 366 surge events in the test window. 2. Short-term (1-5 trading days) average returns are statistically indistinguishable from zero. 3. Starting around day 13 after the surge, cumulative excess return over the benchmark turns significantly positive, reaching roughly +3 % by day 30, while the benchmark slipped about –1.5 %. 4. Win-rate never exceeds 55 %, indicating modest edge; risk management remains essential.Feel free to explore the interactive chart for deeper drill-downs such as drawdown paths, distribution of event outcomes, and optimal holding-day analysis.

INSP’s Rally: A Strategic Buy or a Volatile Flash in the Pan?
Inspire Medical’s 17% surge reflects a mix of earnings optimism and product momentum, but technicals suggest caution. The stock’s 37.6 RSI and bearish MACD (-1.77) indicate potential overbought conditions, while the 200-day MA at $131.29 remains a distant target. Investors should monitor the 79.35 support level and the sector’s mixed performance, particularly Medtronic’s -0.21% decline. For now, a breakout above $89.44 could validate the rally, but a retest of the 77.68 Bollinger Band would test conviction. Action: Watch for a sustained close above $89.44 or a breakdown below $79.35 to define the next move.