Insperity Plummets 22.7%: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Insperity (NSP) crashes to $46.075, down 22.7% from $57.13 at open
• Intraday swing spans $57.41 high to $45.08 low, wiping out $12.35
• Options frenzy: 120,707 shares traded, 3.39% turnover rate

The Human Resource & Employment Services sector faces turbulence as Insperity’s shares collapse in a single trading session. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $45.08 and technical indicators flashing bearish signals, market participants scramble to decipher the catalyst behind this dramatic move.

Options Volatility and Short-Side Pressure Trigger Sharp Selloff
The collapse in Insperity’s share price reflects a confluence of short-term technical exhaustion and aggressive options positioning. Despite no direct company-specific news, the stock’s 22.7% decline aligns with a broader selloff in the Human Resource & Employment Services sector. The most liquid options contracts—particularly the NSP20250815P45 put options with 57.11% implied volatility—show heavy buying pressure, indicating institutional short-side positioning. This is compounded by the stock’s price falling below critical moving averages (30D at $59.62, 200D at $75.60), triggering algorithmic selling.

Bearish Playbook: Leveraged Puts and Short-Term Put Spreads
• 200-day average: $75.60 (well below)
• RSI: 55.42 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.365 (negative momentum)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $46.08, far below $56.27 lower band

The technical picture favors aggressive bearish strategies. Key support levels to watch: $45.08 (52-week low) and $40.00 (psychological floor). Short-term options data reveals two standout contracts for capitalizing on this move:

• NSP20250815C50 (Call):
- Strike Price: $50
- Expiration: Aug 15
- IV: 65.54%
- Leverage Ratio: 43.89%
- Delta: 0.2918
- Theta: -0.0709
- Gamma: 0.0560
- Turnover: 2,024
Payoff Estimation: At 5% downside to $43.77, intrinsic value = max(0, $43.77 - $50) = $0. This call option would expire worthless, but the 43.89% leverage ratio suggests potential for rapid price erosion.

• NSP20251017P45 (Put):
- Strike Price: $45
- Expiration: Oct 17
- IV: 48.05%
- Leverage Ratio: 13.32%
- Delta: -0.4087
- Theta: -0.0223
- Gamma: 0.0377
- Turnover: 7,346
Payoff Estimation: At 5% downside to $43.77, intrinsic value = max(0, $45 - $43.77) = $1.23. With 48.05% IV and 7,346 turnover, this put offers liquidity and directional exposure to continued weakness.

Trading Setup: Aggressive short-term traders should prioritize the NSP20250815C50 call for rapid decay (theta of -0.0709) and the NSP20251017P45 put for directional leverage. A put spread combining these contracts could hedge against volatility while capturing downside.

Backtest Insperity Stock Performance
The backtest of NSP's performance after an intraday plunge of -23% shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.93%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.30%, and the 30-Day win rate is 53.52%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 1.38%, which occurred on day 51, indicating that NSP has a tendency to recover from significant intraday losses over the short to medium term.

Act Fast: Short-Term Weakness May Extend to $40
The technical and options-driven selloff in Insperity suggests short-term weakness could extend toward $40. With the 200-day moving average at $75.60 and RSI near oversold levels, this may represent a buying opportunity for long-term holders. However, short-term traders should focus on the NSP20251017P45 put and NSP20250815C50 call for directional exposure. Sector leader Paychex (PAYX) also under pressure (-2.52% intraday) signals broader HR sector fragility. Act Now: Buy the NSP20251017P45 put if $43.77 breaks, or short the NSP20250815C50 call into the $45.08 support level.