Inseego's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on FWA Growth, Free Cash Flow Projections, and Inseego Connect Expansion

Date of Call: November 6, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $45.9M, second consecutive quarter of sequential growth; FWA revenue was the second-highest in company history; mobile revenue lower YoY (reflecting record carrier promotion in 2024).
• Gross Margin: 41.8% non-GAAP, reflecting favorable product mix year-over-year and strength in FWA.
• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin 12.5% (Adjusted EBITDA $5.8M), up sequentially and the third highest in more than a decade.

Guidance:

• Q4 2025 revenue expected $45M–$48M, targeting sequential growth over Q3.
• Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA expected $4M–$5M.
• Non-GAAP gross margin expected modestly lower in Q4, in the high-30s% due to a greater mobile hotspot mix.
• Software services expected to remain consistent at ~ $12M; FWA expected strong but Q3 record level not expected to repeat.
• OpEx: higher S&M and R&D spending in Q4; G&A expected to improve as a percentage of revenue.
• Monitoring memory cost inflation into 2026; no material Q4 impact expected.

Business Commentary:

• Revenue and Growth:
• Inseego Corp. reported revenue of $45.9 million for Q3 2025, exceeding guidance and marking the second consecutive quarter of sequential growth.

• The growth was driven by strong performance in the FWA segment, particularly the FX4100 product, and a significant increase in mobile hotspot sales.

• FWA and Mobile Performance:

• FWA shipment volumes increased by more than 50% year-over-year, contributing significantly to Q3 financial results, while mobile revenue also showed solid contribution.

• This was attributed to strong demand for the FX4100 with T-Mobile, the addition of a new Tier 1 U.S. carrier, and the launch of the premium FX4200.

  

• Software Services and Solutions:

• Inseego's software services, including Inseego Connect and Inseego Subscribe, maintained consistent revenue of $12 million.

• The development and expansion of these software solutions are part of Inseego's strategic pivot to become a solutions company, offering integrated hardware, network management, and SaaS platforms.

• Leadership and Expansion:

• Inseego strengthened its leadership team with the addition of seasoned executives, including Donna Johnson as CMO and Vishal Donthireddy as CTO, and welcomed new operating experts to the Board of Directors.
• This hiring is aimed at enhancing the company's ability to scale and execute on its growth strategy, particularly in software development and market expansion.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "We generated revenue of $45.9 million and adjusted EBITDA of $5.8 million, both above guidance and marking our second consecutive quarter of sequential growth," and management emphasized product launches (FX4200), new Tier‑1 carrier adds and stronger SaaS/solutions momentum supporting sustainable growth.

Q&A:

• Question from Scott Searle (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division): Steven, maybe to start on Subscribe and Connect. As you started to make some changes in investment, I'm wondering if you could take us through how the monetization changes and how you go to market and access to the channel, how we should be thinking about how that ramps up in '26 and beyond?
  Response: Connect is being elevated to a core enterprise platform (FX4200 will drive cloud attach and MSP/MSO/carrier expansion); Subscribe is being actively invested with new leadership and is expected to be a growth driver in 2026.

• Question from Scott Searle (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division): Does the first quarter have different seasonality? Will we see sequential growth starting a little bit higher in the first quarter as we start to progress into '26?
  Response: Seasonality varies (January can be slower due to year‑end); nevertheless, new product launches, MiFi renewals and expanded carrier programs should drive sequential growth into Q1 2026.

• Question from Scott Searle (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division): With AT&T buying EchoStar spectrum and other industry moves, how do you see that playing out into 2026 for FWA adoption and revenue opportunities for Inseego, and what about the competitive landscape?
  Response: Expanded mid‑band spectrum increases FWA addressable market; Inseego is positioned for enterprise/business FWA (higher ARPU, lower per‑connection bandwidth) and expects to capture share with carrier/MSO/MSP partnerships.

• Question from Christian Schwab (Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division): As you look to the new customer ramping on both fixed wireless and mobile, can you give us an idea of the range of potential outcomes over the calendar '26 from revenue from this customer?
  Response: The new carrier unlocks the missing third of the MiFi market driving significant volume growth (offsetting ASP erosion), and a similar ramp on FWA is expected to materially boost 2026 volumes.

• Question from Christian Schwab (Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division): A substantial portion of your software revenue comes from T‑Mobile; is there an opportunity in 2026 for other Tier‑1 customers to adopt the same software platform?
  Response: Yes—Subscribe is a carrier‑agnostic SaaS platform; the company is investing in people and capital to scale it and expects broader Tier‑1 adoption over time.

• Question from Christian Schwab (Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division): Do you see an opportunity as you roll out new products targeted to the distribution channel and potentially less foreign competition?
  Response: Yes—U.S.-based engineering and IP position Inseego to benefit if the market or regulators favor domestic suppliers, creating additional opportunity.

• Question from Lance Vitanza (TD Cowen, Research Division): FWA shipments begin sooner than mobile with the new Tier‑1—does that staggered timing imply FWA is a bigger priority and how should we think about the unit mix between FWA and mobile over 1–2 years?
  Response: Staggered timing reflects product development and ship readiness, not priority; mobile will drive significant volumes but is a more constrained market, while FWA is expected to grow and expand share longer term.

• Question from Lance Vitanza (TD Cowen, Research Division): The FCC action against 'untrustworthy gear'—could that favorably impact results in 2026 for Inseego?
  Response: Yes—policy actions focusing on CPE and device trustworthiness create meaningful upside for a North American OEM like Inseego to capture replacement and preference-driven demand.

• Question from Cam Tierney (on behalf of Tore Svanberg at Stifel): What early read-throughs are you seeing from the Inseego Connect API rollout—feedback from customers and impact on service revenue attach?
  Response: Feedback has been overwhelmingly positive from the channel council; APIs enable MSP/MSO/carrier integrations, are required for MSP use cases, and help drive service/SaaS attach.

• Question from Cam Tierney (on behalf of Tore Svanberg at Stifel): FWA has recently exceeded mobile—is that a longer-term trend into 2026 and beyond or short-term variability?
  Response: FWA is viewed as a sustained growth driver—product portfolio, technology and broader customer/channel traction support steady contribution to revenue going forward.

Contradiction Point 1

Investment and Growth in FWA

It involves the company's strategic focus and investment priorities in the FWA market, which directly impacts revenue growth and product development.

How will FWA investment and growth evolve in 2026, given the 4200 and competitive landscape? - Scott Searle (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: The opportunity is expanding due to increased spectrum availability. Our solution is positioned for the enterprise market, using less network resources, and is well-aligned with carrier needs. - Juho Sarvikas(CEO)

What catalysts exist for the FX4100 launch? Will the revenue mix between FWA and mobile shift? - Jeremy Kwan (Stifel, Nicolaus)

2025Q2: FWA is expected to continue growing, with a positive impact on revenue mix. The overall market for FWA, especially in enterprise, is in its early stages with significant growth potential. - Steven Gatoff(CFO) and Juho Sarvikas(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Free Cash Flow (FCF) Projections

The answers given in both quarters regarding FCF projections for the year differ significantly, which could impact investor expectations and financial planning.

Does Q1 have different seasonality due to new product launches and carrier win ramp-ups? - Scott Searle(ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: We are targeting free cash flow generation for the year. - Steven Gatoff(CFO)

Can you describe the cadence of free cash flow for this year? - Jonathan Navarrete(TD Cowen)

2025Q1: We expect second-half cash flow to outweigh the first and be positive for the year. - Steven Gatoff(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Revenue Expansion from Inseego Connect

It involves the company's strategy for expanding revenue through Inseego Connect, which is crucial for future growth and market penetration.

How are monetization changes and market access strategies evolving for Inseego Connect and Subscribe? - Scott Searle (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: Inseego Connect is now a core part of the enterprise platform, expanding with MSPs and MSOs and providing rich value capture with the FX4200 launch. It's driving usage to the cloud, enhancing install base. - Juho Sarvikas(CEO)

Can you discuss the multi-million-dollar enterprise agreement with the industrial S&P 500 company, particularly your proximity to the end user? - Lance Vitanza (TD Cowen)

2025Q2: The deal was secured through our Inseego IGNITE channel partner program. The value proposition included both hardware and software support, with the partner seeking managed abilities and visibility. - Juho Sarvikas(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

FWA Revenue and Growth

The answers given in both quarters regarding FWA revenue and growth expectations differ, which could impact investor expectations regarding the company's future financial performance.

Will FWA growth continue into 2026? - Cam Tierney(Stifel)

2025Q3: FWA is now a consistent growth driver, not a short-term trend. We expect continued contributions to both dollars and growth rate. - Steven Gatoff(CFO)

Can you quantify the potential revenue upside from the T-Mobile Partner Plus program? - Jonathan Navarrete(TD Cowen)

2025Q1: We have a large carrier FWA customer in North America that's the bulk of our FWA revenue today. - Juho Sarvikas(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Revenue Growth Expectations for 2025

It directly impacts expectations regarding the company's financial performance and investor expectations for revenue growth in 2025.

Can you explain the monetization changes and market access strategies for Inseego Connect and Subscribe? - Scott Searle (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: We are challenging the revenue start to the year with Q1, but we expect growth starting in Q2. Our outlook for the year is based on a whole host of initiatives we've begun in earnest since my arrival. - Steven Gatoff(CFO)

How do you plan to reduce customer inventory? Are you targeting several weeks of inventory? Can you clarify the 2025 growth comments? - Scott Searle (ROTH Capital)

2024Q4: We are targeting and anticipate growing revenue for the full year 2025 over 2024. - Steven Gatoff(CFO)