InPost's Miss: A Contrarian's Dream in Europe's Logistics Gold Rush?

The market often overreacts to short-term noise, creating opportunities for investors with a long-term vision. InPost’s recent earnings miss—a 40% shortfall in EPS—has sent shares reeling, but beneath the volatility lies a company primed to dominate Europe’s logistics sector. Let’s dissect why this pullback could be a once-in-a-rare-opportunity to buy a growth juggernaut at a discount.

The Miss: A Storm in a Teacup?

InPost’s Q1 2025 results disappointed on EPS (zł0.37 vs. estimates of zł0.62), but the why matters more than the what. The shortfall was largely due to one-time factors: a zł101m foreign exchange revaluation loss and a 38% surge in CapEx to expand its network. Meanwhile, revenue soared 22% to zł2.95 billion, outpacing estimates by 2.2%, and Adjusted EBITDA margins improved to 31.9%. Parcel volumes hit 272 million (+12% YoY), with UK volumes surging 39% post-Yodel acquisition—a deal that now positions InPost as the UK’s third-largest logistics player.

The real red flag? Margin compression. Net profit dropped 28% to zł183.7m, squeezing margins to 6.2% from 11% a year ago. But here’s the rub: this isn’t a death knell. The FX hit was non-cash, and operational costs are a byproduct of rapid expansion. InPost is pouring cash into 50,000 new parcel machines and partnerships with giants like Amazon and ASOS—moves that will pay off in market share and pricing power over the next 18–24 months.

Contrarian Math: When the Market Screams “Sell,” We Shout “Buy!”

Analysts aren’t panicking—they’re revising up. Despite the EPS miss, consensus long-term revenue growth for InPost remains 25% annually, versus the European logistics sector’s anemic 6.5% forecast. The company’s price target? Still zł110–zł130, unchanged from pre-earnings, implying the dip is temporary. Here’s why the fundamentals scream buy now:

1. Geographic Diversification Paying Off:
2. Poland: Revenue grew 11%, with EBITDA margins hitting 47.9%—a moat against competition.
3. Eurozone: Revenue up 13.5%, with margins doubling to 13.5%.

4. UK: A 144% revenue spike (pre-Yodel) hints at dominance post-acquisition.

5. Margin Expansion Ahead:
   The Q1 margin hit was a function of upfront costs. By 2026, economies of scale from 50k+ new APMs and Yodel’s synergies should push margins back toward 10%+. Analysts aren’t pricing this in yet.

6. Cash Flow & Leverage:
   Despite the Q1 FCF dip (zł63.4m vs. zł213m YoY), net leverage remains a sturdy 1.9x. InPost isn’t over-levered—it’s investing, not borrowing for survival.

The Contrarian Play: Buy the Dip, Own the Future

Shares have corrected 12% post-earnings, but the stock is still up 45% YTD. This isn’t a value trap—it’s a growth stock on sale. The key catalysts are clear:
- UK dominance: Yodel’s 50% volume growth (post-consolidation) will turbocharge revenue.
- Automation advantage: 49,808 APMs and 83,000+ PUDO points create a physical barrier to entry.
- Partnerships: Deals with Vinted and ASOS signal a shift from B2C to B2B2C, unlocking recurring revenue streams.

Final Verdict: Time to Load Up

InPost’s earnings miss was a hiccup, not a heart attack. The company is executing a European logistics land grab with aggressive expansion, and the market’s knee-jerk reaction has created a buying window. For contrarians, this is the moment to buy the dip—because when InPost’s margins rebound in 2026, the stock won’t just recover; it’ll soar.

Action Items:
1. Buy INPT.WA at current levels (as of May 16, 2025).
2. Set a stop-loss at 20% below entry.
3. Target a 2-year return of 80%+ as margins and share gains materialize.

This is a company building a logistics empire. Don’t let a temporary miss cloud the view of a gold mine.