Innventure Inc's Earnings Call Contradictions: Pipeline Shifts, Aveda Timeline Clash

Date of Call: Mar 30, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: Innventure’s 2025 revenue was $2.1 million, up from $1.2 million in 2024. Accelsius revenue increased from $0.3 million in 2024 to $1.6 million in 2025.

Guidance:

• Accelsius expects to exit 2026 cash flow breakeven, implying a December 2026 annual revenue run rate of approximately $100 million.
• Revenue for 2026 is expected to be heavily back-end weighted.
• Expect a substantial improvement in adjusted EBITDA in 2026.
• Expect Innventure Topco G&A to follow a trend similar to the last three quarters of 2025.
• Expect 2026 capital needs at the Innventure level to be materially less as operating companies become self-funded.

Business Commentary:

Commercial Inflection and Cash Flow Positivity:

• Innventure's operating companies generated more than $50 million in new bookings in Q1 2026.
• This commercial inflection is expected to drive consolidated cash flow positivity by 2028, with Accelsius projected to achieve cash flow positivity in 2026.
• The increase in bookings and the transition to self-funding are attributed to third-party validation, operational expansion, and execution milestones across the operating companies.

Cost Structure Improvement:

• Consolidated G&A expenses decreased by 61% from $29.7 million in Q4 2024 to $11.5 million in Q4 2025, with a further decline expected in 2026.
• The improvement is due to disciplined cost management, bringing key functions in-house, and a leaner corporate cost structure as operating companies increasingly fund their own costs.

Accelsius' Market Expansion:

• Accelsius secured over $50 million in contracted backlog in Q1 2026 for its liquid cooling solutions.
• The growth is driven by the demand for AI infrastructure, with significant interest from greenfield data center developments and the recognition of the necessity of two-phase cooling for high-performance computing and AI workloads.

AeroFlexx's Customer Validation:

• AeroFlexx announced a partnership with Aveda, part of Estée Lauder, and has a pipeline of approximately $30 million.
• This momentum is due to successful validation in the prestige beauty market and the company’s ability to offer sustainable packaging solutions that meet high brand standards.

Refinity's Rapid Validation:

• Refinity, formed in December 2024, advanced engineering toward a 10 kiloton per year demonstration plant and filed multiple patents.
• The rapid progress is attributed to the company's focus on converting plastic waste into valuable chemical building blocks, addressing a significant market opportunity with a unique technology.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management asserts the platform has 'crossed the threshold from potential to performance' and 'the waiting is over. The results are here.' They highlight 'third-party validation, commercial bookings at scale, operational expansion' and cite a 'decisive, across-the-board inflection.' They express confidence in reaching consolidated cash flow positivity in 2028 and state 'the facts suggest there is a significant gap between where our shares trade and what this platform is worth.'

Q&A:

• Question from Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners): Can you talk about the types of customers in the $50M+ contracted orders for Accelsius in Q1, and the pipeline?
  Response: Pipeline is diversifying; most purchase orders are now 7- to 9-figure commercial production orders, up from evaluation-scale units a year ago.

• Question from Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners): Would you describe deliveries to dozens of customers as piloting phase, and how long before they are fully comfortable?
  Response: Most customers in the pipeline have moved past pilot phase; the average proposal outstanding is now $700k–$900k, indicating transition to commercial orders.

• Question from Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners): Based on backlog, is ~$25M of revenue in Q4 a reasonable visibility expectation?
  Response: Affirmed that is the kind of runway needed to reach cash generative status by year-end 2026.

• Question from Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners): On AeroFlexx, can you provide more detail on the $30M pipeline and potential raise with strategics?
  Response: Technology is proven; commercial proposals are for significant volumes. Aveda is a framework deal with potential for expansion across brands. The company is in the process of launching a direct capital raise.

• Question from Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners): On G&A transparency, is there more low-hanging fruit for optimization?
  Response: Continuously focused on efficiency; costs have decreased sequentially for five quarters since IPO and will continue to improve.

• Question from Nehal Joshi (Northland Capital Markets): At what point do you expect COGS to revenue ratio to normalize, and what % is fixed vs. variable?
  Response: Fixed costs include amortization of intangibles and shift to higher-capacity products; margins are attractive and will become clearer at scale.

• Question from Nehal Joshi (Northland Capital Markets): Inventory was down ~$5M QoQ on <$2M revenue; why?
  Response: Inventory write-downs due to product transition (obsolescence of older 70kW units) and new manufacturing costs.

• Question from Nehal Joshi (Northland Capital Markets): Where does funding for DarkNX come from?
  Response: DarkNX is funded, as qualified by Accelsius and Johnson Controls, but the specific source is not disclosed.

• Question from Nehal Joshi (Northland Capital Markets): Operating companies raising capital independently represents dilution for Innventure and a change in funding philosophy?
  Response: Yes, it involves a trade-off: taking dilution at the operating company level to save permanent dilution at the Innventure topco level until it is cash generative.

• Question from Ashi Shah (D.A. Davidson & Co.): When do you expect meaningful traction from brownfield deployments for Accelsius?
  Response: Adoption in brownfields will likely increase as the industry matures and supply chain develops; acute need currently exists in greenfield AI/HPC builds.

• Question from Ashi Shah (D.A. Davidson & Co.): What is the expected annual volume for the Aveda partnership launch in 2027, and is it pilot or commercial?
  Response: Not disclosed, but it is a global commercial launch, not a pilot, for a luxury brand with significant potential volume.

• Question from Nehal Joshi (Northland Capital Markets): What is the current and target % of independent directors on the board?
  Response: Currently 5 independent directors; target is 7 independents and 2 executive directors, to be achieved around the June AGM.

• Question from Nehal Joshi (Northland Capital Markets): What is the updated pipeline for Accelsius?
  Response: No specific update provided; pipeline has multiple levels of conviction and new opportunities are constantly added.

• Question from Nehal Joshi (Northland Capital Markets): How much of the >$50M Accelsius bookings in Q1 2026 corresponds to megawatts of total cooling?
  Response: A fraction relates to DarkNX's larger announced build-out; more granularity will be provided on a subsequent CEO call.

Contradiction Point 1

Pipeline Composition and Order Progression

Contradiction on whether pipeline leads are primarily new opportunities or follow-on production orders.

Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners) - Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners)

2025Q4: Purchase orders are now primarily 7- to 9-figure commercial production orders, a significant step up from last year's evaluation units. - Bill Haskell(CEO)

Regarding Accelsius's $50M+ in contracted orders for Q1 2026, can you discuss the types of customers beyond DarkNX, the pipeline, and the expected revenue cadence for the year? - Chip Moore (Roth Capital Partners)

2025Q3: The pipeline consists of several hundred leads... over 100 expected to become revenue opportunities. No single dominant customer; growth is driven by hundreds of smaller opportunities... 75% (by dollar volume) now represents production orders for 2026, mostly follow-ons from earlier proofs of concept (POCs). - Bill Haskell(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Aveda Partnership Timeline and Scale

Contradiction on the launch year for the Aveda partnership, with Q4 indicating 2027 and Q3 implying an earlier timeline.

Ashi Shah (D.A. Davidson & Co.) - Ashi Shah (D.A. Davidson & Co.)

2025Q4: The launch is planned for 2027 after tailoring packaging to Aveda's brand requirements. - Bill Haskell(CEO)

What is the expected annual volume for the Aveda partnership at its 2027 launch, and will it be a pilot or full commercial rollout? - Chip Moore (Roth Capital Partners)

2025Q3: Commercial activity and rollouts in conjunction with JCI are anticipated over the next few quarters. - Bill Haskell(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Revenue Growth Cadence and Order Bookings

Timing and confidence in revenue growth trajectory shifted significantly.

Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners) - Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners)

2025Q4: The company expects to exit 2026 with positive operating cash flow, implying a December 2026 annual revenue run rate of approximately $100 million. Revenue is expected to be heavily weighted to the back end of 2026. - Bill Haskell(CEO)

Regarding Accelsius's $50M+ in contracted orders for Q1 2026, can you elaborate on the types of customers beyond DarkNX, the current pipeline, and the expected revenue cadence for the year? - Analyst (Name not specified)

2025Q2: Q2 bookings were greater than all prior bookings combined, and Q3 bookings are expected to be a multiple of Q2 levels. The pipeline shows three times coverage for 2025 and six times coverage for 2026. - Josh Clayman(CTO)

Contradiction Point 4

Manufacturing Strategy for Scale

Plans for scaling production capacity were inconsistent.

Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners) - Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners)

2025Q4: Purchase orders are now primarily 7- to 9-figure commercial production orders, a significant step up from last year's evaluation units. While supply chain constraints affect delivery timing... - Bill Haskell(CEO)

Regarding Accelsius's $50M+ in contracted orders for Q1 2026, could you provide details on the types of customers beyond DarkNX, the pipeline, and the expected revenue cadence for the year? - Analyst (Name not specified)

2025Q2: An expanded 30,000 sq ft facility in Austin (27k sq ft for manufacturing) can service the entire plan for next year. Goal is to have 25–30% in-house manufacturing and the rest with contract manufacturers in the future. - Josh Clayman(CTO)

Contradiction Point 5

Pipeline Composition and Order Progression

Contradiction on the characterization of pipeline leads versus confirmed orders.

Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners) - Chip Moore (ROTH Capital Partners)

2025Q4: Purchase orders are now primarily 7- to 9-figure commercial production orders, a significant step up from last year's evaluation units. - Bill Haskell(CEO)

Regarding Accelsius's $50M+ in contracted orders for Q1 2026, can you discuss the types of customers beyond DarkNX, the pipeline, and the expected revenue cadence for the year? - Chip Moore (Roth Capital Partners)

2025Q3: The pipeline consists of several hundred leads... over 100 expected to become revenue opportunities. - Bill Haskell(CEO)