INJUSDT Market Overview for 2025-10-09

• Price action started with a strong bullish move to $12.83 before retracing to $12.10.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum turning oversold, suggesting a potential bounce.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-day, indicating a period of consolidation before a sharp drop.
• High volume observed during the downward leg from $12.83 to $12.10, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Fibonacci levels at 61.8% and 78.6% of the $12.83–$11.91 move could be key retest levels.

Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) opened at $12.44 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $12.83 before closing at $11.94 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 282,165.8 INJ, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.61 million, based on the OHLCV dataset.

The price formed a sharp bearish trend after reaching an intraday high of $12.83, with a 5.7% drop observed in the final hours. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed at the high, followed by a series of red candles indicating strong selling pressure. A bearish inside bar pattern was also visible around $12.71, which preceded the sharp drop. Key support levels were identified at $12.34 (38.2% Fibonacci retrace) and $12.06 (61.8% retrace), with the latter being tested and broken near the close.

Price action over the 20-period 15-minute EMA showed a breakdown, and the 50-period EMA turned downward, aligning with the bearish trend. The daily 50/100/200 EMA lines, though not directly available, likely confirmed the bearish bias given the extended move lower. The 15-minute MACD crossed below zero during the downward leg and remained bearish with a strong histogram contraction. RSI entered oversold territory for much of the session, with a brief recovery in the last two hours, suggesting a potential bounce, though not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands saw a period of tight consolidation around $12.67–$12.73 before a sharp expansion as price fell to $11.91, indicating a breakout of a prior consolidation phase. Price spent most of the session in the lower half of the bands, consistent with a bearish bias. Volatility increased significantly as the market moved lower, with volume spiking during the $12.83–$12.10 sell-off, confirming the bearish move.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be testing key support levels near $11.91. A close above $12.21 could indicate a short-term bounce, but further confirmation is needed to determine whether this is a countertrend move or a continuation of the bearish trend. Investors should remain cautious, as the 24-hour session saw aggressive selling and significant bearish momentum, suggesting a potential extension of the downward trend if support fails.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy could be designed to capture potential short-term countertrend bounces in INJUSDT by entering a long position when RSI crosses above 30 and the price closes above the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below a recent swing low. A target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level. The strategy would aim to capture rebounds in a bearish trend while managing risk with a defined exit. This approach aligns with the observed bearish setup and oversold conditions in the last 24 hours.