Injective/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-19

• Price dropped sharply after reaching a peak of $14.82, closing near $14.15 on heavy volume.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with Bollinger Bands showing widening as price declined.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with RSI dipping into oversold territory near the close.
• Volume and turnover spiked in the 04:00–06:00 ET window, confirming the breakdown phase.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and a deep breakdown below key support suggest a possible test of $13.97.

On 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, the INJUSDT pair opened at $14.47 and reached a high of $14.82 before settling at $14.15. The 24-hour session saw a low of $14.11. Total traded volume was 373,988.88 INJ, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $5,282,725 USD.

The price structure displayed key resistance at $14.80–14.82 and support at $14.11–14.15, with a bearish engulfing pattern emerging after a failed attempt to reclaim the $14.70 level. The breakdown below the $14.34 pivot point was confirmed by strong volume and a drop in the 15-minute RSI below 30, indicating oversold conditions. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the $14.11 low to the $14.82 high lies near $14.29, suggesting a possible short-term floor.

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bearishly aligned during the breakdown, with price closing below both. MACD showed a negative crossover, reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion in the late ET hours, with the price settling near the lower band during the last hours of the session. This expansion often signals increased volatility and a higher likelihood of a continuation or reversal, depending on volume confirmation.

Volume spiked significantly during the 04:00–06:00 ET window, coinciding with the price breakdown and subsequent consolidation. Turnover also surged during this phase, aligning with the price action and confirming the bearish sentiment. However, divergence between the final 15-minute candles showed a narrowing of volume despite a continued decline, suggesting possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy aims to exploit the bearish momentum and volatility signals observed during this 24-hour period. A potential entry could be placed below the $14.15 close with a stop-loss just above the $14.29 Fibonacci level and a target aligned with the next key support at $13.97. The RSI dip and volume surge during the breakdown align with the strategy's signal criteria. This approach seeks to capture continuation of the trend while managing risk through defined stops and targets.