Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) Market Overview: Volatility Spikes and Oversold Momentum

• Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) fell from $11.79 to $8.98 over 24 hours amid strong bearish momentum.
• A sharp breakdown below key support at $10.40 triggered a wave of stop-loss activity.
• Volatility surged as price collapsed to $2.74 intraday, with massive volume and turnover.
• RSI hit oversold territory, but price lacks follow-through to confirm a potential rebound.
• Bollinger Bands show significant expansion, signaling elevated uncertainty and potential reversal.

The Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) pair opened at $11.68 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and fell to a low of $2.74 before rebounding to close at $8.98 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The 24-hour period recorded a high of $11.79 and a low of $2.74. Total trading volume reached 5,918,432.56 INJ with a notional turnover of $44,355,995.01, indicating strong participation during the sharp decline.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a distinct breakdown pattern as INJUSDT breached critical support levels, most notably $10.40 and $9.12, which acted as temporary barriers. A large bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the overnight session, confirming bearish conviction. A significant bear trap was triggered between $10.40 and $9.12, with a false recovery attempt before the price continued lower. A doji formed briefly near $9.0, indicating indecision, but the bearish trend remained intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are sharply declining, with price remaining below both. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, price remains well below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50D MA is currently at ~$11.00, acting as a dynamic overhead resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong bearish divergence as the pair moved lower, with a large negative bar indicating strong selling pressure. The MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish momentum shift. RSI reached oversold territory below 30 but failed to rally meaningfully, suggesting a lack of buying interest at lower levels. RSI remains below 40, signaling continued bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a wide expansion due to the sharp price drop, with the lower band currently near $8.75. Price has remained near the lower band for several hours, indicating a potential oversold condition. A retest of the upper band at $9.25 may be required to confirm a near-term reversal. The volatility expansion suggests elevated uncertainty, and a contraction may signal a temporary pause in the trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically during the breakdown to $2.74, with the most active 15-minute candle showing a turnover of $1,263,243.35 on 948,867.36 INJ traded. This spike in volume confirmed the bearish move, aligning with the price action. However, volume has declined in the rebound to $9.0, suggesting a lack of conviction in the recovery. A divergence between price and volume could indicate a potential reversal or a continuation if bullish participants step in.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart show that the recent rebound stalled near the 50% level (~$9.0–$9.10), which also corresponds to the RSI overbought threshold. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the $2.74 to $9.0 move lies around $6.40. A break above the 38.2% level (~$9.20) could signal short-term bullish momentum, while a rejection near $9.0 could prolong the bearish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and strong volume during the breakdown, a potential backtest strategy might involve a short entry near the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop above the 50-period moving average (~$9.20) and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~$6.40). The MACD divergence and RSI oversold reading could serve as confirmation for a short-term reversal signal. However, the current price action near $9.0 and the lack of follow-through buying suggest that a bearish bias remains, but traders should remain cautious of a potential rebound.