Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• INJUSDT rallied from 7.34 to 8.12 in 24 hours, showing strong upward momentum.
• RSI hit overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion.
• High volume confirmed the bullish breakout, with turnover surging near key resistance levels.

Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) opened at 7.34 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and surged to 8.12 by 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended between 7.34 and 8.18, with a close of 7.90. Total traded volume for the period reached 442,847.50 INJ, translating to a turnover of $3,334,846.09 at a 15-minute average rate. The price action reflects a strong bullish bias, supported by expanding volume and clear breakouts over key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The price formation on the 15-minute chart featured a bullish breakout above the 7.50–7.60 consolidation range, confirmed by a large-bodied candle on 2025-11-10 05:15 ET. A strong ascending triangle pattern emerged from 7.34 to 7.60, followed by a measured move target of around 7.70–7.80. A key support level appears at 7.75, marked by a double-bottom reversal. A potential bearish reversal could occur if price fails to hold above 7.75 in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA early in the session, signaling a bullish crossover. The 50-period MA now resides at 7.66, slightly below the current price, indicating the uptrend is still intact. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (currently at ~7.40) is well below the 200-period MA (~7.20), suggesting the long-term trend remains bullish but not yet fully aligned with the recent strength.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 7.50 and is currently positive at 0.21 with a histogram indicating expanding bullish momentum. RSI surged from ~45 to over 80, reaching overbought territory. While this may suggest short-term exhaustion, the sustained price action and volume suggest buyers are still active, possibly extending the move toward 8.18.

Bollinger Bands

Price action broke above the upper Bollinger Band at 7.76, with the band width expanding to reflect increasing volatility. The 15-minute channel is now wider than the previous consolidation, indicating heightened market sentiment. As of close, price is trading slightly below the upper band at 7.90–7.92, maintaining a bullish stance but with caution warranted if it dips below the middle band (~7.80).

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakout, with the largest 15-minute volume of 115,076.41 INJ occurring at 15:00 ET as the pair traded at 8.01. Notional turnover mirrored this, peaking at $921,692.93 at the same point. The correlation between price and volume suggests a genuine breakout, not a false signal. However, a divergence in volume during the final leg (16:00–18:00 ET) may hint at a potential pause or correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 7.34 to 8.18, the 61.8% retracement level is at 7.76, currently being tested. The 38.2% level (~7.85) and 50% level (~7.87) remain key near-term support targets. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the broader 7.00–8.18 range show 7.75 as a critical level to watch ahead of further bullish moves.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential of a strategy that buys INJUSDT when RSI exceeds 70 (overbought) and sells at the next key support (defined as a swing-low pivot), we propose the following setup:

1. RSI Settings – Use a 14-period RSI on the 15-minute chart; entry triggers when RSI > 70.
2. Entry Signal – A buy occurs immediately when RSI first crosses above 70, not after holding above it for multiple candles.
3. Exit Rule – Sell at the first close below the most recent swing-low pivot (a candle with a lower low than its immediate neighbors).
4. Data Frequency – 15-minute candles for precision, given the aggressive intraday swings.
5. Risk Controls – No stop-loss or take-profit will be used, relying solely on the defined support-based exit.
6. Capital & Fees – Use a starting capital of 100 USDT and apply a 0.1% per-trade fee to reflect typical exchange conditions.

This strategy will be tested from January 1, 2022, to November 10, 2025, to account for full market cycles and volatility events. The results will help assess whether buying INJUSDT at overbought levels, supported by strong volume and structure, can yield consistent returns when exited at key support levels.