Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) Market Overview

• Price rallied from $11.75 to $12.44, hitting a 24-hour high before consolidating near $12.04
• Momentum indicators suggest a potential pullback due to overbought conditions on MACD and RSI
• Volatility spiked with a 12.7% range, but volume failed to confirm strength during the upper breakout
• Bollinger Bands show recent contraction indicating potential consolidation or reversal
• Fibonacci retracements highlight key support near $11.91 and resistance near $12.29

Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) opened at $11.98 on October 9, 2025, at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $12.44, and closed at $12.04 at the same time the following day. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 528,907.11 INJ, with a notional turnover of approximately $6,342,870 (based on INJ price). The pair exhibited strong upward momentum early, followed by a sharp correction, suggesting a possible continuation or retesting of key levels.

Structure & Formations

INJUSDT formed a bullish engulfing pattern following a dip to $11.75, which preceded a strong rally to $12.44. A bearish engulfing pattern later emerged as the price retraced from the high. A long-legged doji near $12.04 indicates indecision and potential for a short-term reversal. Key support levels appear to be forming around $11.91 and $11.79, while resistance is clustering near $12.29 and $12.38. The price may test these levels again in the coming 24 hours.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute chart shows the price crossing above the 20- and 50-period moving averages early in the session, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, as the price retreated, the 20-period line crossed below the 50-period, suggesting weakening momentum. MACD turned negative mid-session, and RSI hit overbought territory before correcting back to neutral, indicating a potential pullback could be imminent. The 50-period daily moving average currently sits at approximately $12.10, suggesting a retest of that level is likely.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price surged to $12.44, reflecting a spike in volatility. As the price corrected, it closed near the middle band, suggesting consolidation or a possible reversal. The recent contraction in band width implies traders should watch for a potential breakout or breakdown, particularly near key Fibonacci levels.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial $12.00–$12.44 rally but dropped significantly during the pullback, indicating potential distribution at higher levels. Notional turnover also peaked around $12.40, while volume during the pullback was relatively light, hinting at a lack of follow-through buying pressure. The divergence between volume and price may signal a weakening in bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour swing from $11.75 to $12.44, the 38.2% level at $12.09 and the 61.8% level at $12.29 appear critical for near-term direction. The current price is hovering near the 38.2% retracement level, which may offer support or trigger a bounce. A failure to hold above $12.09 could result in a retest of the 50% level at $12.09 or even the 61.8% retracement at $12.29.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price structure and technical indicators, a viable backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a break above the 50-period moving average ($12.10) with a stop-loss placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($12.09). Alternatively, short entries could be triggered on a close below the same level, targeting a retest of the $11.91 support. A trailing stop could be used to lock in profits as the price moves toward the next Fibonacci or resistance level. This setup aligns with the recent trend and divergence in volume, suggesting a medium-term trade with defined risk.