Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from $12.66 to $12.25 amid bearish momentum and increased volume.
• RSI near oversold levels hints at potential short-term reversal, but trend remains bearish.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with price breaking below key support of $12.40.
• Bollinger Bands show price trading at the lower band, confirming bearish bias.
• MACD turned negative with bearish crossover, suggesting continued downward pressure.

Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) opened at $12.51 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded between $12.25 and $12.66 over the 24-hour period, closing at $12.47 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume reached 324,171.18 with a turnover of $4,027,383.07. The price action reflects a clear bearish bias, with key resistance levels failing to hold.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart around 17:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment to the downside. Price then broke below critical support at $12.40, which had previously held during the morning session. A bearish flag pattern is visible from $12.66 to $12.25, with a projected target near $12.20. A doji appeared at 03:15 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal near $12.39, but the bearish trend quickly resumed. Key support levels at $12.35 and $12.30 are now in play.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below price, confirming the bearish bias. The 20 EMA dipped below the 50 EMA at around 20:15 ET, marking a death cross on the shorter time frame. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at $12.45 is being tested, with the 200-period MA at $12.33 acting as a potential psychological floor.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly below the zero line at 20:30 ET, with a negative histogram indicating deteriorating momentum. The RSI fell into oversold territory around 03:30 ET near the 30 level, but failed to rebound above 40, suggesting bearish exhaustion is yet to be fully played out. A reversal above 50 would be needed to confirm any meaningful shift.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the major selloff from $12.66 to $12.25, indicating heightened volatility. Price currently sits at the lower band, reinforcing the bearish narrative. A contraction in the bands would suggest consolidation ahead, though without a clear break above the upper band, further downside remains likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the critical break below $12.40, with a 15-minute candle at 03:30 ET showing 26,880.89 volume and $333,136.59 turnover. This confirms the bearish breakout. However, volume has since tailed off, suggesting that the bearish momentum may be waning slightly. A divergence between price and volume could signal a potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute move from $12.66 to $12.25 place key levels at 38.2% ($12.45) and 61.8% ($12.34). Price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential pivot point for near-term action. On the daily swing, the 50% level at $12.45 is also a critical area to watch for a possible bounce or breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA (death cross) on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI below 30 and price below the lower Bollinger Band. Stop-loss would be placed above the recent swing high, with a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8% or 78.6%). This approach aligns with the bearish setup observed over the past 24 hours, with the 03:30 ET candle meeting all the criteria.