Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined sharply after testing a key resistance of $13.25, breaking to a 24-hour low of $12.40.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened; price closed near the lower band.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% ($12.64) provided temporary support, but failed to trigger a reversal.

Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) opened at $13.23 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $13.30, and a low of $12.40, closing at $12.49 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour volume was approximately 603,799.7 INJ, and the notional turnover totaled $7,899,604.

The 24-hour chart displayed a clear bearish bias, particularly from the midday ET session onward. Price broke below the psychological support of $13.00 and continued to fall, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. A notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 13:30 ET, signaling increased selling pressure. A doji formed near $12.52, hinting at potential exhaustion in the downtrend. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating heightened volatility and a potential short-term oversold condition.

On the 15-minute time frame, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bearish alignment, with the 50 SMA crossing below the 20 SMA, confirming a short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs were in a tight convergence, suggesting the market is transitioning into a phase of consolidation or a potential trend reversal. The RSI entered oversold territory at 26 by the end of the session, while the MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence, with momentum slowing despite the continued price decline.

The 15-minute Fibonacci retracement from the recent high of $13.30 to the low of $12.40 placed the 61.8% level at $12.64, which briefly halted the downtrend but failed to sustain a reversal. Price bounced off this level twice but ultimately continued lower. Volatility expansion was evident as the Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff. Notional turnover increased sharply during the decline, especially between 14:15 ET and 15:45 ET, confirming the bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described in the input involves using a combination of RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands to identify potential reversal points in a downtrend. Given the recent bearish action and the RSI reaching oversold levels, a hypothetical long entry could be considered at the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($12.64), with a stop-loss placed below the recent low of $12.40. A take-profit target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $12.88. This strategy assumes that the oversold condition and the failed test at $12.64 may trigger a short-term bounce, especially if volume picks up again. The MACD bearish divergence suggests the selloff may be nearing exhaustion, making it a suitable point for a contrarian trade.