Initia/Tether Market Overview for October 4, 2025

• Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) traded in a range between $0.3183 and $0.3480, closing at $0.3191 after a bearish 24-hour trend.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern appeared around $0.3425–$0.3393, signaling potential further downside.
• RSI approached overbought levels early but quickly reversed into oversold territory, highlighting bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the day before consolidating near key Fibonacci levels.
• Notional turnover exceeded $11.7 million, with volume surging at key breakdown levels.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at $0.34 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.3480 by late afternoon. The pair declined steadily over the next 24 hours, reaching a low of $0.3183 before settling at $0.3191 at 12:00 ET on October 4. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 2,215,430.5 contracts, translating to a notional turnover of $696,822.43. The price action showed a clear bearish bias, with significant volume clustering at key support levels.

The candlestick structure highlighted two prominent bearish patterns: a large bearish engulfing candle around $0.3425–$0.3393, and a potential doji forming near $0.3273 in early morning hours. These patterns suggest a shift in sentiment toward sellers. Key resistance levels emerged at $0.3325, $0.3375, and $0.3420, while support appears to be consolidating around $0.3250 and $0.3180. The price has remained below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands widened in the early hours, indicating heightened volatility, before narrowing as the price consolidated near the lower band. This suggests traders are watching for potential short-term bounces but remain cautious. RSI dipped below 30 by late morning, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to generate a convincing bullish reversal. The MACD line crossed below the signal line, maintaining bearish momentum.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key swing high at $0.3480 and low at $0.3183 indicate potential inflection points at $0.3331 (38.2%), $0.3257 (61.8%), and $0.3203 (78.6%). Price appears to have found temporary support at $0.3223–$0.3226, suggesting that a rebound to $0.3250 may be in play. However, a break below $0.3180 would open the door to lower levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish patterns and momentum indicators, a backtesting strategy could target short positions on a break below the $0.3200 level, with a stop just above the $0.3250 Fibonacci retracement. Entry would be confirmed by a close below $0.3180, with a target of $0.3130–$0.3080 and a stop-loss at $0.3250. This approach leverages the bearish engulfing pattern, bearish MACD, and RSI divergence to identify a high-probability short-term trade.