Initia/Tether Market Overview: Bearish Momentum Intensifies

• Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) declined 24-hour low of $0.298 amid rising bearish momentum.
• Price breached key support at $0.305, with RSI entering oversold territory and expanding volatility noted.
• Volume surged during the selloff, aligning with the price decline, suggesting conviction in the bearish move.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed late in the session, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty, while the 20-period MA provided a dynamic resistance.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at $0.3154 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $0.3269 and a low of $0.298 before closing at $0.3013 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 5.57 million, with a notional turnover of $1.73 million. Price action suggests intensifying bearish momentum amid a widening Bollinger Band and key support break.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below the 0.305 support level, which had previously acted as a magnet for buyers, now functioning as a resistance-turned-support. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the final 15-minute candle, indicating strong conviction in the downward move. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.308 was breached, suggesting further downside potential. A doji formed near the high of $0.3269, signaling indecision after a sharp rally.

Moving Averages

The 20-period moving average (0.305) currently offers dynamic resistance, while the 50-period MA is at $0.304, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are sloping downward, indicating a medium-term bearish trend. Price remains below all major MAs, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the last 4–5 candles, with the histogram shrinking, indicating weakening momentum. RSI has entered oversold territory, dipping below 30, but divergence is not yet observed—price continues to make lower lows while RSI does not. This suggests that further selling could continue before a potential rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after a mid-day consolidation phase, with the Bollinger Bands widening. Price has traded near the lower band for much of the session, indicating a high volatility environment. The last candle closed near the mid-band, suggesting possible consolidation ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 8:30–9:00 ET hour, as price dropped to $0.298, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover increased in tandem with price declines, indicating aligned conviction. A divergence appears in the last 2–3 candles—price is consolidating near the 0.301–0.303 range, but volume remains low, signaling a potential pause or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure and indicator alignment, a backtesting strategy using a 15-minute RSI-based mean reversion approach could be viable. Specifically, a long signal could be triggered when RSI drops below 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop just below the most recent swing low. A short signal could be triggered when RSI rises above 70 and price breaches the upper Bollinger Band. The 20-period MA would serve as a filter—only signals where price is below the 20 MA would be considered. This approach would aim to capture countertrend bounces in a trending environment. Given the current price near oversold levels, a mean reversion long entry might offer a favorable risk-reward in the near term.