Initia/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.3468 to 0.3129 over 24 hours, showing bearish continuation.
• Volume surged near the end, indicating potential capitulation or accumulation.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, though price remains under key support.
• A breakdown below 0.3345 could trigger further downside toward 0.3118.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the late hours, reflecting increased market stress.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.3445 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3129 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of 0.3469 and a low of 0.3118 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 6.1928 million units, while notional turnover totaled approximately $2,035,000, reflecting heightened trading activity as the price collapsed.

Structure & Formations

Price action suggests a bearish bias, with a distinct breakdown pattern forming around 0.3345. A large bearish engulfing candle appeared near 0.337–0.3345 on 10-07 at 08:15 ET, confirming the breakdown. Several doji and spinning tops appeared in the 0.338–0.342 range, indicating indecision and a weakening of bullish momentum. The 0.3306 level acted as a short-term support, which failed to hold, leading to further declines. Key supports now sit at 0.3306 and 0.3118, with the 0.3345 level acting as the immediate psychological level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a bearish crossover for several hours, confirming the downward trend. The 50-period MA currently sits near 0.3385, which now functions as dynamic resistance. On a daily basis, the 50/100/200 MA lines have trended lower for weeks, supporting the broader bearish bias. A recovery above the 50-day MA would be necessary to trigger a potential reversal, but such a move remains improbable given current momentum.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning, confirming a bearish turn in momentum. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory around 28, though divergence between price and RSI suggests bearish continuation is more likely than a rebound. On the daily chart, RSI remains in the lower 30s, indicating a lack of near-term buying pressure. MACD on the daily chart also remains in bearish territory, with no signs of divergence indicating a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly in the last 8 hours, with price dropping below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. This contraction followed a period of consolidation, suggesting an acceleration in selling pressure. As price trades near the lower band, it reinforces the bearish narrative. A retest of the upper band at 0.3425 is unlikely without a sharp reversal in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged late in the 24-hour period, with a large bearish candle on 15-07 at 15:45 ET accounting for $223,000 of notional turnover alone. This suggests increased selling pressure or capitulation by short-term holders. However, the divergence between price and turnover in the early part of the day—where turnover was relatively low despite a sharp drop—points to possible weakness in the trend. The recent spike in volume confirms the breakdown and could indicate entry by short-term bearish traders or accumulation by longer-term bearish actors.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 0.3468 high to 0.3118 low are now at 0.3345 (38.2%), 0.3276 (50%), and 0.3208 (61.8%). Price is currently testing the 38.2% level at 0.3345, which has served as both support and resistance in the past. A failure to hold here would likely bring the 61.8% retracement into play, though the 50% level may see some temporary bounce activity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position when a bearish engulfing candle forms after price breaks below the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed above the high of the engulfing candle. A take-profit target is placed at the next Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8% retracement) or the nearest support. Given the recent engulfing at 0.337–0.3345 and the breakdown below key moving averages, this setup appears valid and would align with the bearish narrative described. The RSI in oversold territory increases the potential for a continuation rather than a reversal, making this strategy a plausible entry point for short-term traders.