Initia/Tether Market Overview

• Initia/Tether declined 5.17% over 24 hours, with sharp bearish momentum intensifying in the early session.
• Price broke below a key 0.375 support level, opening a potential path toward 0.365.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening during the selloff.
• RSI entered oversold territory but failed to show strong rebound signs, suggesting weak near-term demand.
• High-volume bearish reversal candles formed near 0.379–0.381, reinforcing downward bias.

Opening Narrative

The Initia/Tether pair (INITUSDT) opened at 0.3771 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3688 by 2025-09-21 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 0.3813 and a low of 0.3648, with total volume amounting to 3,110,072.4 units and notional turnover of $1,179,655.20. Price action and volume patterns suggest a strong bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bearish reversal candle on the 15-minute chart at 0.379–0.381, with high volume and a long upper wick. The breakdown below 0.375 marked a new short-term support level, while 0.368–0.370 became a critical area of congestion and potential consolidation. A doji formed near 0.3702, hinting at indecision in the 0.368–0.370 zone. Further downward movement may test the 0.365 level as the next support target.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing a short-term bearish outlook. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, forming a death cross on the intraday time frame. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are both above the 200-period, but price has diverged below all three, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a sharp contraction during the mid-session selloff. RSI hit oversold territory (below 30) by late afternoon and failed to bounce, indicating weak near-term demand. A rebound may require a strong positive divergence or a volume surge to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with volatility reaching a 24-hour peak near 0.367–0.369. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting a possible overextension in the short term. A consolidation phase may follow before any meaningful bounce, with the 0.373–0.375 range acting as a potential re-entry zone for buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early session selloff, especially in the 18:30–19:30 ET window, where it exceeded 250,000 units. Notional turnover spiked as the price dropped below 0.375. Divergence between price and volume was not observed during the decline, indicating that bearish pressure was supported by strong participation. However, volume during the 0.368–0.370 consolidation was relatively low, suggesting weak buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.3648–0.3813 swing include 61.8% at 0.3716 and 38.2% at 0.3759. Price is currently near the 50% retracement level of 0.3730, with the 61.8% level serving as a potential support. A breakdown below 0.3685 may trigger a 100% retracement to 0.3648. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the last major high to the current low suggest a potential test of 0.360 as a longer-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve shorting on a break below a key Fibonacci level, such as 0.3716, with a stop above a 15-minute high. A target could be set at 0.3648, with partial exits at 0.3680 and 0.3650 to manage risk and capture momentum. The strategy would rely on MACD and RSI confirming bearish bias and volume supporting the breakdown. Given the current price structure, this approach appears viable for a 24-hour trade, though it requires close monitoring of volume divergence.