Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) Market Overview

• Price swung from 0.3057 to 0.1252 before consolidating at 0.1945
• Sharp 15-minute sell-off triggered by massive volume spike
• RSI bottomed near 25, hinting at short-term oversold conditions
• Volatility expanded during sharp selloff, then narrowed
• Volume concentrated in late-day rebound, signaling potential support

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.3035 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1945 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 0.3057 and a low of 0.0354. Total volume across the period was 59,437,128.3, with notional turnover amounting to 649.8 USDT.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a sharp bearish trend initiated from the 15-minute timeframe. A massive bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 2025-1010 213000 with a close at 0.1252, signaling strong bearish momentum. A potential support level appears at 0.19–0.191, with consolidation suggesting traders are testing this zone. A bearish reversal at 0.3057 is followed by a long bearish candle with wick, indicating rejection of higher prices.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price appears to be below key moving averages of 20 and 50. This supports a bearish bias, with the 50-period line acting as dynamic resistance. Daily timeframe analysis indicates the 50, 100, and 200-period lines are in bearish alignment, suggesting continued pressure unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after the large bearish move, with bearish divergence visible on the histogram. RSI dropped sharply into oversold territory near 25 and began to show signs of stabilization. This suggests a potential rebound is imminent, though a sustained recovery would require a convincing bullish cross on the MACD.

Bollinger Bands

During the early bearish move, volatility expanded significantly, with price breaching the lower Bollinger Band at 0.1252. Volatility has since contracted, and price is currently sitting within the Bollinger Band range, suggesting a consolidation phase. A breakout above the upper band would require a strong bullish signal to confirm a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 15-minute candle ending at 2025-1010 213000 with a turnover of 992,921.5 USDT. This volume spike confirmed the sharp decline in price. Later in the 24-hour period, volume increased again during the rebound to 0.1945, indicating some accumulation at lower levels. Price and turnover appear to be in alignment, with no clear divergence noted.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute swing from 0.3057 to 0.1252 show a 61.8% retracement near 0.1965, where price stalled. On the daily timeframe, the 38.2% retracement level sits at 0.23, a potential resistance level if the market reverses higher. These levels could act as psychological anchors for traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume spikes and RSI divergence. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.1965, while the target could be aligned with the 38.2% retracement level at 0.1891. A long position might be considered near the 0.19 support zone if RSI crosses above 30 and MACD shows a bullish crossover. This approach would aim to capture short-term swings while managing risk via defined stops.