Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-10-12

• Price dropped from 0.1942 to 0.1741 before a late-day recovery to 0.1854.
• Strong bearish momentum early in the session with volume spiking at key breakdown levels.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 15:00 ET, with a sharp 6.4% rebound.
• Volume remains concentrated in the 15:00–18:00 ET timeframe, highlighting buying pressure during the rebound.
• RSI and MACD show mixed momentum signals, with overbought levels reached near 0.1854.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.1942 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1854 on 2025-10-12 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.195 and a low of 0.1741. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 17,331,345.8, and notional turnover was $3,142,807.69.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed multiple bearish breakdowns in the early hours, including a long bearish candle with a 1.2% drop from 0.1942 to 0.1927, followed by a larger 1.6% decline to 0.1888. This was succeeded by a 3.1% drop to 0.1824 by 19:30 ET, with key support levels forming at 0.1811, 0.1782, and 0.1741. A late-day bullish reversal occurred starting at 15:00 ET, where price rose 6.4% to 0.1854. A bullish harami pattern formed between 15:00 ET and 15:15 ET, signaling a possible near-term bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA in the early hours, confirming bearish momentum. Price closed below both averages for most of the session until a sharp rebound at 15:00 ET brought it back above the 50SMA. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has held strong above 0.1860, with the 200DMA sitting at 0.1845, indicating a possible support cluster forming at 0.1840–0.1850.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative throughout the morning session, with the histogram bottoming at -0.0012 before a sharp positive crossover occurred at 15:00 ET. RSI hit oversold territory near 28 in early afternoon, rising to overbought levels near 72 by 16:00 ET. This divergence suggests a potential exhaustion of both bearish and bullish momentum, with a likelihood of consolidation ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 15:00 ET, with price rising above the upper band by 0.1859. During the early bearish phase, price traded near the lower band, indicating a period of low volatility and strong bearish pressure. The recent rebound has pushed price into the upper half of the bands, suggesting increased uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated between 15:00 ET and 18:00 ET, with a peak of 2,488,077.1 at 15:00 ET, marking the start of the bullish reversal. Notional turnover spiked to $439,473.30 during this timeframe. Volume and price were in alignment during this move, suggesting genuine bullish conviction. In contrast, volume was weak during the earlier bearish move, signaling lack of conviction in the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels from the 0.1942–0.1741 swing include 38.2% at 0.1843 and 61.8% at 0.1810. Price briefly tested 0.1843 on the rebound but closed near 0.1854, slightly above the 38.2% level, indicating potential resistance ahead. Daily retracements from the 0.195–0.1741 move show the 50% level at 0.1846, now acting as a pivot level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price closes above the 50SMA and volume crosses above its 20-period moving average, combined with RSI entering overbought territory. Short positions could be triggered on a close below the 20SMA with a bearish divergence in RSI. The recent 15:00 ET move aligns with the long entry criteria, suggesting the strategy could capture part of the rebound. However, the lack of a clear trend during the first half of the session highlights the need for filtering out false signals during low-conviction moves.