Ingersoll Rand Plunges 3.10% as Death Cross Signals Prolonged Bearish Trend

Candlestick Theory
Ingersoll Rand's recent price action exhibits a pronounced bearish trend, closing at $78.48 with a 3.10% decline on October 9, 2025, marking the fifth consecutive down day. The formation of multiple long red candles, particularly the October 9 session’s high-to-low range ($81.41–$78.26), signals persistent selling pressure. Key support is established near $77.70–$77.45 (July–August 2025 swing lows), while resistance converges around $81.40–$82.00, aligned with the October 8 peak and the 50-day moving average. A recent breakdown below $81.00 invalidated previous consolidation, reinforcing near-term bearish control.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed below the 200-day MA, confirming a "death cross" that typically signifies long-term bearish momentum. Price currently trades below all key MAs (50, 100, 200-day), with the 200-day MA near $83.50 acting as formidable resistance. The accelerated decline from the September high of $89.02 suggests weakening trend structure, and the lack of meaningful rebounds highlights sustained downward inertia.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram persists in negative territory, with the signal line firmly below zero, indicating entrenched bearish momentum. KDJ shows oversold conditions (K and D lines near 20 on October 9), but consecutive sub-30 readings since late September demonstrate failure to trigger meaningful reversals. MACD’s lack of positive divergence during oversold KDJ phases suggests limited reversal probability. This confluence warns that oversold conditions may extend further in a strong downtrend.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply during the October breakdown, reflecting rising volatility and directional bearish momentum. Price consistently hugs the lower band, last observed on October 9, signifying continued downward pressure. The absence of price rejection from the lower band underscores weak buying interest. A contraction in bandwidth is needed to signal potential exhaustion, but current conditions favor downside continuation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate recent volume activity. The October 9 sell-off occurred on elevated volume (2.56M shares), exceeding the 20-day average and confirming bearish conviction. Notably, rallies (e.g., October 2 +0.81%) featured below-average volume, while down days (October 7–9) saw higher volumes, validating the downtrend’s sustainability. The absence of accumulation volume near supports further undermines reversal prospects.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently hovers near 30, technically oversold. However, it has failed to breach above 50 during September–October relief rallies, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. Recent values held below 40 during sideways consolidation, diverging from minor price bounces—a bearish divergence. While oversold, RSI’s inability to regain 50 during this downtrend limits its reversal signal reliability.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the July 22–September 19 uptrend ($85.44–$89.02) reveals critical thresholds: the 61.8% retracement at $80.90 aligned with the October breakdown point, and the 78.6% level at $78.80 nearly tested on October 9. A decisive break below $78.80 may expose the 100% extension near $76.00. The failure to hold the 50% retracement ($82.23) in early October intensified selling pressure.
Confluence & Divergences
Significant confluence exists at $78.80, where Bollinger’s lower band, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and the August swing low converge. A break below this level may accelerate declines toward $77.45. Bearish divergences are evident: RSI and KDJ oversold signals failed to generate rebounds, while declining volume on up days invalidates recovery attempts. MACD’s consistent negativity reinforces bearish alignment across indicators. Probabilistically, the weight of evidence favors testing lower supports near $77.45, with reversals requiring a close above the $80.90–$81.40 resistance cluster.