Ingersoll Rand Outlook - Weak Technicals and Mixed Fundamentals Signal Caution

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) is showing weak technical signals and mixed fundamentals, with a recent price rise of 0.41%. Investors should remain cautious due to bearish momentum.

News Highlights

Recent news includes developments in U.S. vaccine policy, changes in uranium mining under President Trump, and a potential revival of crypto ETFs. Notably, China's factory activity showed signs of improvement in May, which could indirectly impact global markets and industrial players like IR. However, these stories have not directly affected Ingersoll Rand's stock in the short term.

• U.S. Vaccine Policy Shift: The Department of Health and Human Services under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has revised vaccine approvals and recommendations. While impactful for public health, the link to industrial stocks like IR is tenuous.
• Trump Fast-Tracks Uranium Mining: This move could revive a niche industry, but uranium is not a core part of Ingersoll Rand's business. However, it reflects broader market optimism in industrial sectors.
• China's PMI Slight Improvement: China’s PMI rose to 49.5 in May, showing a small improvement in factory activity. This could indirectly benefit IR, which has international operations and sells machinery globally.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst consensus for Ingersoll Rand is neutral, with a simple average rating score of 3.50 and a performance-weighted average of 3.33. The ratings are consistent, with a mix of "Buy" and "Neutral" recommendations from the last 20 days.

• Michael Halloran (Baird): "Buy" recommendation, with a strong historical win rate of 66.7%.
• Julian Mitchell (Barclays): "Buy" recommendation, though with a weak historical performance of only 33.3%.
• Chris Snyder (Morgan Stanley): "Neutral," with limited historical data but a perfect 100.0% win rate in one prediction.
• Nathan Jones (Stifel): "Neutral," supported by a 71.4% historical win rate.

This mixed feedback suggests a generally cautious approach. On the price front, IR is currently up 0.41%, aligning with the relatively neutral market expectations.

Key Fundamental Factors

Here's a snapshot of the most influential fundamental factors and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• EV/EBIT: 148.57 (score: 1 internal diagnostic score). High EV/EBIT indicates overvaluation or weak EBIT.
• ROA: -0.63% (score: 0). Negative return on assets suggests poor asset efficiency.
• PE: -143.27 (score: 1). Negative PE is uncommon and suggests unprofitability or a negative net income.
• Profit-MV: -1.67 (score: 0). Poor profit-to-market value ratio indicates weak profitability.
• Long-Term Debt to Working Capital Ratio: 2.57% (score: 3). This is a positive sign for liquidity and debt management.
• CFOA: 1.36% (score: 0). Weak cash flow from operations is a red flag.
• Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.24% (score: 2). Suggests the company can barely cover its interest expenses.
• Asset-MV: 0.36 (score: 1). Suggests limited asset value relative to market capitalization.
• Cash-MV: -0.32 (score: 2). Negative ratio indicates insufficient cash relative to market cap.

These factors paint a picture of financial distress. While the company maintains manageable debt levels, its profitability and operational efficiency remain concerning.

Money-Flow Trends

The fund-flow data for Ingersoll Rand is a mixed bag. While small investors show a negative trend, the block (institutional) investors are showing a positive trend.

• Small investors: Inflow ratio of 0.4988, trend is negative.
• Medium investors: Inflow ratio of 0.5113, trend is positive.
• Large investors: Inflow ratio of 0.5134, trend is positive.
• Extra-large investors: Inflow ratio of 0.5100, trend is positive.

The overall inflow ratio is 0.5110 with a positive trend, suggesting that large and institutional investors are still mildly optimistic despite the weak technicals. However, retail investors are pulling back, indicating caution.

Key Technical Signals

The technical analysis of Ingersoll Rand is not in a strong position. The technical score is 2.04, with 3 bearish and 0 bullish indicators. The trend is weak, and the analysis suggests avoiding the stock.

• Williams %R (Overbought): Score 1.98 (internal diagnostic score). Suggests weak momentum in overbought conditions.
• Williams %R (Oversold): Score 3.15. Mixed signal—neutral rise potential despite recent oversold conditions.
• Dividend Payable Date: Score 1.00. Strong bearish bias after dividend events historically.

Recent indicator activity by date includes:

• 2025-08-26: WR Overbought
• 2025-09-03: WR Oversold
• 2025-09-02: WR Oversold
• 2025-09-05: WR Overbought
• 2025-09-04: Dividend Payable Date

This pattern shows conflicting signals, with the stock bouncing between overbought and oversold conditions without clear breakout potential.

Conclusion

With weak technical signals, mixed fundamental performance, and cautious analyst ratings, Ingersoll Rand (IR) presents a high-risk profile for investors. The stock is currently rising slightly but lacks strong momentum or institutional conviction. Consider waiting for a clearer breakout or a pull-back before entering a position. For now, it's best to avoid overexposure to IR and monitor key earnings or macroeconomic developments for a potential turnaround.