ING Groep Plunges 3.04% Amid Sector-Wide Turbulence: Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Warning Signal?

Summary
• ING Groep (ING) drops 3.04% to €22.65, marking its worst single-day decline since early 2023
• European Banking Authority confirms ING’s resilient capital position post-stress test
• Regional banks like U.S. Bancorp and Citigroup also tumble as weak jobs data fuels rate-cut fears
• ING’s 52-week high of €23.90 now feels distant as the stock trades near its 200-day moving average of €18.61

ING Groep’s sharp intraday decline has captured market attention, with the Dutch banking giant falling 3.04% to €22.65 as of 16:42 CET. The move coincides with a broader selloff in the global banking sector, triggered by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and fears of an impending interest rate cut. While the EBA’s stress test results affirmed ING’s capital resilience, the stock’s technicals and sector dynamics tell a different story.

Sector-Wide Weakness Overshadows EBA’s Positive Outlook
Despite the European Banking Authority’s confirmation that ING’s CET1 ratio remains robust at 13.3% as of June 2025, the stock’s decline is driven by macroeconomic fears rather than company-specific concerns. The U.S. jobs report—showing a mere 73,000 new jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate—has intensified expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut. Lower interest rates compress net interest margins, a critical metric for banks. Compounding this, new tariffs on 92 countries have spooked investors about global trade disruptions, further weighing on the sector. ING’s 3.04% drop mirrors broader weakness, with JPMorgan Chase down 2.07% and U.S. Bancorp off 2.79%, indicating a systemic rather than idiosyncratic move.

Diversified Banks Sector Reels as JPMorgan Leads Weakness
The Diversified Banks sector is under pressure, with ING’s 3.04% decline aligning with JPMorgan Chase’s 2.07% drop and U.S. Bancorp’s 2.79% slump. Citigroup, however, has bucked the trend with a 7.1% gain since its Q2 earnings, highlighting divergent earnings performance. While ING’s capital position remains strong, the sector’s vulnerability to interest rate cuts and trade tensions is amplifying risk-off sentiment. ING’s 11.3x P/E ratio, below its 52-week low of €15.085, suggests undervaluation, but macroeconomic headwinds may delay a recovery.

Bearish Options and ETFs to Capitalize on ING’s Volatility
• 200D MA: €18.61 (price near long-term support)
• RSI: 60.20 (neutral bias)
• MACD: 0.49 (bearish crossover with signal line at 0.51)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at €22.09 (current price at 22.65, near key support)

ING’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with the stock testing its 200-day moving average and lower Bollinger Band. Two options stand out for aggressive bearish plays: ING20250815P22 (Put, €22 strike, 30-turnover) and ING20250815P23 (Put, €23 strike, 75-turnover).

ING20250815P22
• Code: ING20250815P22
• Type: Put
• Strike: €22
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 31.59% (moderate volatility)
• Lverage: 75.57% (high potential return)
• Delta: -0.31 (moderate sensitivity to price drops)
• Theta: -0.0221 (manageable time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2429 (strong sensitivity to price movement)
• Payoff at 5% downside: €0.95 per share (4.2% return on €22 strike)
This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bearish bet as ING tests key support levels.

ING20250815P23
• Code: ING20250815P23
• Type: Put
• Strike: €23
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 30.56% (reasonable volatility)
• Lverage: 30.23% (moderate return potential)
• Delta: -0.58 (high sensitivity to price drops)
• Theta: -0.0271 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2772 (strong price responsiveness)
• Payoff at 5% downside: €1.15 per share (5% return on €23 strike)
This high-delta option capitalizes on a sharper pullback below €23, with favorable gamma for accelerating gains as ING declines.

If €22 breaks, ING20250815P22 offers a leveraged short-side entry. For a sharper decline, ING20250815P23 could capitalize on a breakdown below the €23 support level.

Backtest ING Groep Stock Performance
ING has historically shown positive performance after experiencing a -3% intraday plunge. The backtest data reveals that such events have occurred 560 times over the past five years, with a 3-day win rate of 60.18%, a 10-day win rate of 57.32%, and a 30-day win rate of 63.75%. This indicates that ING tends to rebound from significant intraday declines, with the maximum return observed being 7.57% over 30 days.

ING’s 200D MA Becomes Critical: Watch for a Breakdown or a Rebound
ING’s ability to hold its 200-day moving average of €18.61 and lower Bollinger Band at €22.09 will determine its near-term trajectory. A close below €22.6968 (30D support) could trigger a test of the 52-week low at €15.085, while a rebound above €23.03 (middle Bollinger Band) may reignite short-term bearish momentum. Sector leaders like JPMorgan Chase (-2.07%) serve as a barometer for broader banking sentiment. Aggressive bears may consider ING20250815P22 if the €22 level breaks, but watch for a potential reversal above €23.03.