US informs UN Security Council of intention to enter into deal with Iran

The United States is set to make a deal with the Iranian government if Iran "abandons its nuclear ambitions"

In a significant development, cryptocurrency bettors on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket have sharply increased their odds that the United States and Iran will strike a nuclear deal by the end of 2025. This shift in betting odds comes following President Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire in the ongoing Middle East conflict [1].

The odds for the betting contract titled “US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?” soared from 34% to 51% in the last 24 hours on Polymarket. Over $2 million has already been wagered on the outcome, with the market voting "Yes" if an official agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development before 2025 ends [1].

The spike in odds comes after Trump confirmed a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which Iran's Foreign Minister denied. Trump's announcement of a ceasefire, coupled with the U.S. bombing of key Iranian nuclear sites, has significantly influenced the betting market. The U.S. military strikes, which Trump termed a "spectacular military success," initially lowered the odds of a nuclear deal [1].

However, recent discussions between the U.S. and Iran, facilitated by the Trump administration, have reignited hopes for a nuclear agreement. The U.S. has discussed potentially helping Iran access up to $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds [3]. These talks have continued despite the military strikes and the ceasefire agreement.

The U.S. administration's non-negotiable stance is zero Iranian enrichment of uranium, while Iran has consistently stated its need for enrichment. The U.S. has proposed an alternative: importing enriched uranium for civilian purposes, similar to the United Arab Emirates' nuclear program [3].

The betting market's shift reflects the evolving dynamics between the U.S. and Iran. While the ceasefire and military strikes have created uncertainty, ongoing diplomatic efforts suggest that a nuclear deal remains a possibility. The Polymarket odds serve as a real-time indicator of market sentiment, reflecting the potential for a nuclear agreement by the end of 2025.

References:
[1] https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46066361/us-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-crypto-bettors-on-polymarket-see-strong-chance-after-trumps-ceasefire-announcement
[2] https://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/643631/iran-nuclear-program-was-not-destroyed-by-air-strikes-says-us-intel
[3] https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/us-iran-talks-nuclear-program