Why Infleqtion (CCCX) Is the Quantum Stock to Outperform Rigetti (RGTI) in 2026

The quantum computing sector has emerged as a focal point for speculative and strategic investment in 2025, with market dynamics increasingly shaped by valuation divergence and execution realism. Among the key players, Infleqtion (CCCX) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stand out as contrasting case studies. Citron Research, a prominent short-seller known for its rigorous analysis of speculative tech stocks, has positioned itself long on Infleqtion while shorting Rigetti, a trade it initiated earlier this year. This divergence reflects a critical debate: which company is better positioned to deliver on quantum computing's commercial promise?

Citron's Long/Short Trade: A Bet on Execution Realism

Citron Research, led by Andrew Left, has staked its reputation on identifying overvalued tech stocks while backing those with tangible execution. In the case of quantum computing, Citron's long/short trade between Infleqtion and Rigetti is rooted in stark differences in commercial progress and valuation logic. According to Citron, Infleqtion has transitioned from a "theoretical science project" to a commercially viable entity, evidenced by its partnerships and revenue-generating activities. By contrast, Rigetti is described as "struggling to meet even basic benchmarks set by DARPA" and failing to deliver on its commercial potential. Citron reiterated its long position in Infleqtion, assigning a fair value estimate of $55 per share, while maintaining a short stance on Rigetti.

Infleqtion's Commercial Viability: Partnerships and Revenue Outperformance

Infleqtion's recent trajectory underscores its ability to translate quantum innovation into market traction. The company's collaboration with Safran SA-a leader in aerospace and defense-highlights its focus on practical applications, such as GPS-independent timing solutions for mission-critical systems according to Citron. This partnership not only validates Infleqtion's technology but also opens pathways to high-margin, defense-adjacent markets.

Financially, Infleqtion has outperformed Rigetti in revenue generation. Data from the first half of 2025 shows that Infleqtion's 12-month sales exceeded those of Rigetti and other quantum peers. This commercial momentum is critical in a sector where revenue scalability remains a key differentiator. Citron argues that Infleqtion's valuation is more attractive than Rigetti's, suggesting the former should trade at a significantly higher price if valued similarly to the latter.

Rigetti's Challenges: Unproven Progress and Inflated Valuation

Rigetti Computing, despite its 264% year-to-date stock rally, faces persistent questions about its financial sustainability and technological execution. The company reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $1.9 million but incurred an operating loss of $20.5 million and a GAAP net loss of $201.0 million for the same period. While Rigetti has secured purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera™ systems totaling $5.7 million, these figures pale in comparison to its losses.

Valuation metrics further highlight the disconnect between Rigetti's stock price and fundamentals. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests its shares are overvalued by approximately 87.3%, and its price-to-book ratio of 20.0x far exceeds the semiconductor industry average. Citron's critique-that Rigetti is "not delivering on its commercial potential"-resonates here, as the company's valuation appears disconnected from its ability to generate consistent revenue or meet technical milestones.

Market Momentum and the Santa Rally: A Double-Edged Sword

Quantum computing stocks, including Rigetti, have benefited from the 2025 "Santa Rally," a retail-driven surge fueled by speculative enthusiasm. Rigetti's 2675.2% three-year gain and Infleqtion's recent share price jump reflect this momentum. However, Citron and other analysts caution that such rallies are often unsustainable in sectors with small revenue bases and unproven commercial models according to Nasdaq. Infleqtion's stronger revenue growth and strategic partnerships position it to capitalize on this momentum more effectively than Rigetti, which lacks a clear path to profitability.

Conclusion: Valuation Divergence and the Path to 2026

The Citron trade underscores a fundamental truth in quantum computing: valuation divergence is not just a function of market sentiment but a reflection of execution realism. Infleqtion's commercial partnerships, revenue outperformance, and more attractive valuation metrics make it a compelling long-term play compared to Rigetti's inflated multiples and unproven progress. As the sector matures in 2026, investors may find that the companies best positioned to deliver on quantum computing's promise are those that prioritize tangible execution over speculative hype.