Inflation's New Playbook: How CFOs Are Weaponizing Tech and Strategy to Outrun Volatility

The economic sky is darkening. With 46% of CFOs now expressing record levels of pessimism—marking a 15-quarter high—the Grant Thornton Q2 2025 CFO Survey reveals a stark reality: inflation isn't just a temporary headwind. It's a systemic force reshaping corporate strategy. Amid expectations of further price spikes (79% of respondents) and a potential consumer spending slump (60%), CFOs are pivoting from reactive cost-cutting to proactive, technology-driven plays to protect margins and fuel growth.

For investors, this isn't just a survival story—it's a roadmap for identifying companies poised to thrive in the inflationary storm. Let's dissect the three critical battlegrounds: supply chain agility, generative AI adoption, and customer-centric reinvestment.

1. Cost Optimization: From Scrimping to Scenario Engineering

The old playbook of layoffs and price hikes is dead. 42% of CFOs are now practicing high-frequency scenario planning, stress-testing their businesses against tariffs, tax shifts, and geopolitical shocks daily. This isn't austerity—it's a data-driven arms race.

Manufacturing and retail CFOs lead the charge, with 46% reshaping supply chains via domestic sourcing and renegotiated supplier contracts. The lesson here? Location matters. Companies insulating themselves from global volatility—think reshored production or diversified supplier networks—are less vulnerable to inflation's next jolt.

2. Generative AI: The 2x ROI Margin Insurance

The survey's most striking stat: 77% of CFOs tracking generative AI ROI report at least a 2x return, driven by automation in financial workflows, faster close cycles, and modernized infrastructure. This isn't about “moonshots” but incremental wins: using AI to squeeze costs out of procurement, compliance, or logistics.

For investors, this is a signal to favor firms systematically embedding AI into core operations. The 2x ROI metric isn't accidental—it's a reflection of disciplined tech spending. Look for companies where AI isn't a buzzword but a measurable lever to offset inflation's bite.

3. Customer Acquisition: Data-Driven Growth in a Squeezed Market

With 53% of CFOs boosting sales and marketing spend, the focus is no longer on blanket price hikes but on customer segmentation and dynamic pricing systems. The goal? Retain high-margin clients while acquiring those insulated from inflation's pinch.

Tech and telecom firms are pioneers here, using data analytics to tailor offers and identify resilient demand pockets. Meanwhile, banks are shifting resources to scenario planning amid slowing M&A activity—a sign that capital is flowing toward defensive, data-powered growth over speculative deals.

The Investment Thesis: Where to Place Your Bets

The Grant Thornton data paints a clear path for investors:

1. Prioritize sectors with proactive supply chain reengineering (manufacturing, retail).
2. Favor companies with measurable Gen AI ROI (tech, telecom).
3. Avoid firms relying on blunt instruments like layoffs or price hikes—23% are already relocating production to the U.S. due to tariffs, while only 28% are reducing production. The laggards will struggle.

The winners will be those turning volatility into an edge. Their strategies—scenario planning, AI-driven efficiency, and data-powered customer focus—aren't just inflation hedges; they're competitive moats.

Final Note: Inflation's Silver Lining

The CFOs surveyed aren't just surviving—they're retooling. A world of rising prices demands precision, not panic. Investors who align with this mindset—backing firms that weaponize technology and data to navigate uncertainty—will find pockets of growth even as the broader economy stumbles.

The next decade's winners will be written by those who treat inflation not as an enemy but as a catalyst for reinvention.

Data sources: Grant Thornton Q2 2025 CFO Survey, SEC filings, and industry reports.