Indonesia's Boldambitious Energy Pivot: Feasible or Pipe Dream?

Indonesia's new president, Prabowo Subianto, has set an ambitious goal to retire all fossil fuel plants within the next 15 years, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050. But is this lofty target realistic, or just a pie-in-the-sky dream?

Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter and a heavy consumer of fossil fuels, is facing a monumental challenge. With over 250 coal-fired power plants in operation and more under construction, the task of phasing out these plants and transitioning to renewable energy is daunting. Experts are skeptical, citing the country's heavy reliance on coal for energy and the need for substantial investment in renewable energy infrastructure.

However, Indonesia has vast potential in renewable energy sources like geothermal, solar, wind, and hydropower. The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that only 14.5% of these renewable sources are currently tapped, leaving ample room for growth. The question is, can Indonesia harness this potential quickly enough to meet its ambitious goals?

A study using the OSeMOSYS modeling tool suggests that solar power, geothermal, and hydropower are key alternatives for coal decommissioning. Despite large-scale investment in renewable energy under the NDC and JETP scenarios, emissions could still be reduced by 55% and 52% by 2050. However, the current carbon tax rate may not lead to significant emission reductions, highlighting the need for additional policies like accelerating coal power plant retirement and prioritizing solar technology investment.

Indonesia's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) deals and international funding will be crucial in supporting this transition. But how effectively these funds are utilized will determine the success of the energy pivot. The Indonesian government must prioritize accelerating the retirement of coal-fired power plants, preventing new permits for their construction, and imposing an aggressive carbon tax rate.


In conclusion, Indonesia's ambitious energy transition plan is a step in the right direction. However, the feasibility of this goal within the next 15 years remains uncertain. The country must prioritize investment in renewable energy sources, leverage international funding effectively, and implement robust policies to accelerate the retirement of coal-fired power plants. Only time will tell if Indonesia's bold energy pivot is a feasible reality or just a pipe dream.