Indonesia's Nuclear Ambition: A 10 GW Gamble in the Renewable Energy Race
2min read Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous nation and a key player in global energy markets, is doubling down on its renewable energy transition with a bold plan to build 10 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity by 2030, as announced by a presidential aide. This aggressive target, while not yet fully codified in official policy documents, signals a strategic pivot toward low-carbon energy to power its growing economy. But can Indonesia deliver on this ambitious vision, and what does it mean for investors?
The Plan in Detail: A Nuclear Powerhouse by 2040?
The Indonesian government’s stated goal is to construct its first nuclear power plant by 2032, starting with a 250-megawatt (MW) facility and scaling up to 3 GW by 2035 and 9 GW by 2040. While the 10 GW figure cited by the aide exceeds the formal 2040 target, it aligns with longer-term ambitions of 35–42 GW by 2060, as outlined in the National Electricity General Plan (RUKN 2025–2060).
The initiative focuses on small modular reactors (SMRs) and floating SMRs to serve remote regions, with priority sites in Bangka Belitung, West Kalimantan, and Halmahera. These locations were chosen for their tectonic stability and proximity to existing grid infrastructure.
International Partnerships: A Global Tech Race
To achieve this, Indonesia is leveraging partnerships with global nuclear leaders:
- The U.S.: Collaboration with NuScale Power on its VOYGR SMR design (77 MW per module) and ThorCon International for its TMSR500 molten salt reactor (500 MW).
- Russia: Proposals for floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs) from Rosatom.
- China: Interest in supplying high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTRs).
These alliances are critical for technology transfer and financing. For example, ThorCon’s TMSR500 project in Bangka Belitung aims to operationalize by 2032, with a potential $2 billion investment.
Challenges Ahead: Regulatory, Financial, and Social
Despite the momentum:
1. Regulatory Delays: The Nuclear Energy Program Implementation Organization (NEPIO) is still in its formative stages, and BAPETEN (Indonesia’s nuclear regulator) must finalize safety protocols.
2. Cost Concerns: Nuclear projects are capital-intensive. While the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) secured $20 billion in funding, Indonesia will need to attract further private investment.
3. Public Perception: Though a 2016 survey by BATAN found 77.5% public support for nuclear energy, opposition could rise as communities near proposed sites voice concerns over safety and land use.
Investment Opportunities: Betting on Nuclear Infrastructure
For investors, the opportunities lie in:
- Construction and Engineering: Companies like PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA) and PT Adhi Karya could benefit from infrastructure contracts.
- Technology Partnerships: Firms like NuScale and ThorCon stand to gain from long-term supply agreements.
- Renewable Hybrids: Nuclear’s baseload capacity could complement Indonesia’s vast solar and wind resources, creating opportunities in grid integration and green hydrogen production.
The Bottom Line: Risks and Rewards
Indonesia’s nuclear push is a high-stakes gamble. Success hinges on:
- Accelerating NEPIO’s establishment to fast-track approvals.
- Securing financing without over-reliance on foreign debt.
- Balancing public engagement with technical execution.
Conclusion: Indonesia’s 10 GW nuclear ambition is both visionary and fraught with complexity. While the 9 GW by 2040 target is more concrete, the 10 GW figure underscores the government’s resolve to leapfrog into a leadership position in Southeast Asia’s energy transition. For investors, the risks—regulatory, financial, and social—are significant. Yet, the rewards are equally compelling: a stake in a market poised to become a hub for cutting-edge nuclear technology. With 79% of Indonesia’s 443 GW energy mix by 2060 slated to be renewable or nuclear, this is a bet on the future of power generation. Will Jakarta deliver? The world—and investors—are watching.
