Indian generic versions of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy to slash obesity drug price by 80% in 2024.

Indian drugmakers such as Dr Reddy's, Sun Pharma, Cipla, and others are gearing up to launch generic versions of Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug semaglutide in March 2023. The drug's price is expected to crash by 80% from the prevailing rate of Rs 17,000-26,000 per month. The Indian weight-loss drug market is expected to expand to Rs 8,000-10,000 crore by 2030.

Indian drugmakers are preparing to launch generic versions of Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug semaglutide in March 2023, which could lead to a significant price drop of up to 80% from the current rate of Rs 17,000-26,000 per month. This move is expected to make the drug more accessible to obese and diabetes patients, driving substantial growth in the Indian weight-loss drug market.

Semaglutide, marketed as Wegovy, is set to lose its patent exclusivity in India in March 2023, triggering a rush of generic copies. Leading Indian drugmakers such as Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Cipla, Mankind Pharma, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Zydus Lifesciences, and Eris Lifesciences are gearing up to enter the market with affordable versions. This will make adoption among the obese and diabetes patients easier and help reduce the cost of the drug by more than 90% within three to four years.

The domestic weight-loss drug market is expected to expand to Rs 8,000-10,000 crore by 2030, up from about Rs 700 crore at present. Vishal Manchanda, a pharma analyst at Systematix Group, predicts that weight-loss molecules like semaglutide and tirzepatide will be the largest category of drugs in the country in the next 4-5 years. The market size in the first 12-24 months after the expiry of semaglutide patent in India is estimated to be Rs 4,000-6,000 crore, before nearly doubling thereafter by 2030.

The market for semaglutide and tirzepatide is expected to expand significantly, with the number of Indians taking weight-loss or GLP-1 drugs pegged at about 1.2 million in the first two years and 4 million by 2029-2030. Currently, about 100,000 people in the country are estimated to be on GLP-1 drugs. Sales volumes of the drug are expected to expand 3-4x in the first year and about 10x in five years, according to Bino Pathiparampil, head of research at Elara Capital.

Wegovy is currently priced at Rs 17,345 to Rs 26,050 per pen-filled injection, which comprises a month’s dose of four once-a-week shots. Mounjaro (tirzepatide), a rival drug, comes in 2.5 mg and 5 mg vials, priced at Rs 14,000 to Rs 17,500 for a month’s dose. Vyankatesh Shivane, a diabetology and endocrinology consultant at Jaslok Hospital & Research Centre in Mumbai, noted that Mounjaro has captured the major share of the Indian market so far due to its early launch and higher weight loss efficacy.

The expected price drop and increased adoption of semaglutide will significantly impact the Indian weight-loss drug market. Investors and financial professionals should closely monitor this development, as it could present both opportunities and challenges for the pharmaceutical industry in India.

References:
[1] https://m.economictimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/indian-generics-wave-next-year-set-to-sink-obesity-drug-price/articleshow/123127121.cms