India seeks U.S. waiver to buy Russian LNG, Russian crude could double from January levels to at least 40% of India's total monthly imports - Reuters

India has reportedly sought a U.S. waiver to increase its purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), with the potential for Russian crude to account for at least 40% of India’s total monthly oil imports, according to Reuters. This would mark a significant reversal from January 2026, when Russian crude accounted for just 21.2% of India’s oil imports, the lowest share since late 2022.

The U.S. has historically pressured India to reduce its reliance on Russian oil, particularly after imposing tariffs on Indian goods in response to New Delhi’s continued purchases. However, a temporary 30-day waiver has already allowed Indian refiners to resume some Russian crude imports. Analysts suggest that with this flexibility, Russian crude flows could rise to as much as 1.8–2.0 million barrels per day, compared to an average of 1.0 mbpd in early 2026.

The potential increase in Russian oil imports is being driven by a combination of discounted pricing, logistical challenges in securing alternative supplies, and growing regional tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens key shipping routes. While India has diversified its import sources, including increasing purchases from the Middle East and Latin America, Russian crude remains a critical component of its energy strategy.

Despite the recent decline in Russian oil imports, analysts note that the shift has been driven more by sanctions, tariffs, and logistical constraints than a strategic pivot away from Russian suppliers. The U.S. waiver, therefore, offers Indian refiners a short-term buffer to stabilize operations and manage supply risks in a volatile global market.