India's Economic Pulse and Corporate Earnings Take Center Stage on April 28

Investors in India are bracing for a critical day of data and corporate updates on April 28, 2025, as the release of the March 2025 Industrial Production (IIP) data and over 50 corporate earnings reports set the stage for market volatility. The interplay of macroeconomic trends and company-specific performance will shape investor sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and global trade headwinds.

The IIP: A Litmus Test for Manufacturing Health

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for March 2025—scheduled for release on April 28—is the linchpin of the day’s economic activity. Analysts project a 3.3% year-on-year growth, a slight pickup from February’s 2.8% expansion. The data will provide clarity on whether India’s manufacturing sector is recovering from a slowdown driven by weak global demand and domestic supply-chain disruptions.

The IIP’s performance is particularly critical given geopolitical risks, including lingering India-Pakistan tensions, and U.S. trade policies. A stronger-than-expected reading could bolster the rupee and lift equities, while a miss might amplify concerns about the sector’s resilience.

Corporate Earnings: A Mixed Bag of Growth and Challenges

The earnings season for the week of April 28–May 2 will feature results from over 50 companies, with April 28 itself hosting a deluge of financial updates. Below are key highlights from sectors shaping the narrative:

1. Energy and Renewables

• Adani Green Energy: Reported a 13% YoY revenue rise to ₹1,993 crore in Q3 FY25, with EBITDA margins holding steady at 91.4%. The company’s Q4 results will face scrutiny amid its aggressive solar expansion plans.
• Reliance Industries: Q4 FY25 revenue rose 9% to ₹2.61 lakh crore, but EBITDA stagnated at ₹43,832 crore, marking its largest margin contraction in a decade. Weak refining margins and flat chemical sales pressured profitability.

2. Banking Sector

• IDFC FIRST Bank: Net profit plunged 58% YoY to ₹304 crore due to higher provisions, though its net interest margin (NIM) held at 5.95%.
• DCB Bank: Outperformed peers with a 14% net profit gain to ₹177 crore, aided by a cleaner asset book (Gross NPA: 2.99%).

3. Auto and Transport

• Force Motors: Net profit soared 210% to ₹435 crore, driven by government incentives and strong rural demand.
• Tejas Networks: Suffered a catastrophic 60% EBITDA drop to ₹121 crore amid project delays and cost overruns, underscoring risks in the telecom infrastructure space.

4. Cement and Infrastructure

• UltraTech Cement: Results will be pivotal for the sector, as demand recovery and price hikes remain uncertain. Analysts expect revenue growth of 5–7%, but margins could face pressure from rising fuel costs.

Market Sentiment: Geopolitics and Global Trade in the Spotlight

Investors will also parse broader risks:
- India-Pakistan Tensions: Ongoing border disputes could disrupt cross-border trade and tourism, denting consumer confidence.
- U.S. Tariffs: The Biden administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on Chinese goods may indirectly benefit Indian exporters, but uncertainty looms.

Stocks to Watch

• Adani Green Energy: A key beneficiary of India’s renewable energy push, but valuation concerns linger.
• UltraTech Cement: A bellwether for infrastructure demand; watch for volume and pricing trends.
• DCB Bank: Its strong NIM and clean balance sheet make it a defensive play in a volatile banking sector.

Conclusion: Navigating Crosscurrents

April 28’s data and earnings underscore India’s dual trajectory: a manufacturing sector showing fragile recovery and corporate results highlighting sectoral divergence. The IIP’s 3.3% growth estimate suggests resilience in industries like capital goods, but Reliance’s margin contraction and Tejas Networks’ stumble highlight execution risks.

For investors, the day’s outcomes will dictate whether to rotate into resilient sectors like renewables and banks or adopt a cautious stance amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. With the HSBC Manufacturing PMI and U.S. GDP data also on the horizon, April 28 sets the stage for a pivotal week—one where data and corporate health will reign supreme.

In this environment, selective investing—focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and pricing power—will be key to navigating the crosscurrents of growth and risk.