Index Revisions and the Future of Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Assessing Systemic Risks to Strategy Inc. and the Digital Asset Sector

The digital asset treasury sector, once hailed as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto markets, now faces a pivotal moment as major index providers reassess their inclusion criteria. Recent developments from MSCI, a global leader in index design, highlight the growing scrutiny of companies whose balance sheets are heavily weighted toward cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This analysis examines the potential systemic risks to Strategy Inc. and the broader sector, drawing on regulatory shifts, market dynamics, and macroeconomic trends.

MSCI's Review: A Catalyst for Sector-Wide Pressure

According to a report by , MSCI is evaluating whether to exclude digital asset treasury firms from its major equity benchmarks, targeting companies with over 50% of their balance sheets allocated to cryptocurrencies. This move reflects a shift in how index providers categorize such firms, increasingly viewing them as investment vehicles rather than traditional operating businesses. The review includes 38 companies, including Strategy Inc., Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital, all of which have substantial Bitcoin holdings.

If MSCI proceeds with the exclusion, index-tracking funds would be compelled to divest the affected stocks, creating significant downward pressure on their valuations. For Strategy Inc., which holds approximately $9 billion in Bitcoin within a $56 billion market cap, the impact could be severe. JPMorgan analysts estimate that a removal from MSCI indices could trigger up to $2.8 billion in outflows, given the firm's heavy reliance on passive index funds. This scenario underscores the fragility of business models dependent on index inclusion for liquidity and valuation stability.

Broader Systemic Risks to the Sector

The potential exclusion of digital asset treasury firms from major indices signals a broader reevaluation of their role in traditional financial markets. These companies, which function as custodians of crypto assets while generating minimal operational revenue, face a dual challenge: declining institutional confidence and regulatory ambiguity.

For instance, the U.S. Senate's upcoming crypto market structure legislation, which passed the House in July 2025, could redefine how indices classify digital asset firms. If regulators mandate stricter operational thresholds for index inclusion, firms with speculative or non-operational revenue streams may face further marginalization. Additionally, the SEC's recent approval of generic listing standards for commodity-based ETPs could divert investor capital toward more liquid crypto products, reducing demand for shares of treasury companies.

Q4 2025 Macroeconomic and Regulatory Context

The macroeconomic environment in Q4 2025 adds another layer of complexity. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut in September 2025, coupled with signals of further easing, has lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin. While this could theoretically boost demand for crypto treasuries, geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening labor market pose counterbalancing risks.

Moreover, the approval of ETPs by the SEC may accelerate the shift of institutional capital toward direct crypto exposure, bypassing the need for intermediary treasury companies. This trend could exacerbate the sector's vulnerability to index revisions, as passive investors reallocate assets to more regulated and liquid alternatives.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for Digital Asset Treasuries

The potential exclusion of digital asset treasury firms from MSCI indices represents more than a technical adjustment-it is a systemic stress test for a sector built on precarious assumptions. For Strategy Inc., the risk of a $2.8 billion outflow is not just a financial concern but an existential threat to its business model. Broader implications include a possible de-anchoring of valuations for similar firms and a reevaluation of the sector's role in traditional finance.

As Q4 2025 unfolds, investors must weigh the interplay of regulatory clarity, macroeconomic shifts, and index provider decisions. The coming months will determine whether digital asset treasuries can adapt to a post-index inclusion reality or face a prolonged period of structural decline.