IMTX Plummets 12.76%: What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Immatics (IMTX) announces $125M underwritten offering, triggering sharp selloff
• Stock opens at $10.89, plummets to $9.91 intraday low
• Technicals show RSI at 65.42, MACD histogram rising
• Options chain reveals 72% implied volatility on 12/19 put options

Immatics’ stock has plunged 12.76% to $10.355 amid a $125M equity offering, sparking investor panic. The offering, priced at $10/share, has triggered a 12.5M share dilution, with Jefferies and Leerink managing the deal. Technicals suggest mixed signals, while options data highlights aggressive short-term positioning.

Equity Offering Sparks Sharp Selloff
The 12.76% drop in IMTX is directly tied to the company’s $125M underwritten offering, which dilutes existing shareholders by 12.5M shares. The offering, priced at $10/share, is below the previous close of $11.87, signaling investor skepticism about the company’s valuation. The move reflects a strategic capital raise to fund clinical trials but has been interpreted as a sign of financial strain, triggering a liquidity-driven selloff. The 52-week low of $3.30 adds to bearish sentiment, with the stock now trading near its 200-day moving average of $6.48.

Options and ETFs: Navigating the Volatility
• 200-day MA: $6.48 (below current price)
• RSI: 65.42 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.333 (bullish), Signal: 0.269 (bearish), Histogram: 0.064 (rising)
• Bollinger Bands: $11.57 (upper), $10.15 (middle), $8.73 (lower)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $10.17–10.23, 200D $5.84–6.01

IMTX’s technicals suggest a volatile short-term outlook. The stock is testing its 200-day MA and key support at $8.73. Traders should monitor the 30-day MA at $10.15 as a critical level. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays: IMTX20251219P10 and IMTX20260417P10. Both contracts offer high leverage and implied volatility, ideal for a bearish scenario. The 12/19 put (strike $10) has 72% IV and a 26% leverage ratio, while the 4/17 put (strike $10) offers 71% IV and 7% leverage. These options are positioned to benefit from a 5% downside move, with projected payoffs of $0.35 and $1.27, respectively. Aggressive short-sellers should prioritize the 12/19 put for its high theta decay and gamma sensitivity.

Backtest Immatics Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-study module. It summarizes how IMTX’s share price behaved after every ≥ 13 % single-day drop since 2022.Key take-aways1. Sample size: 15 qualifying plunges between 2022-01-03 and 2025-12-05.2. Average performance after the event was poor: cumulative –14 % at 30 trading days, with win-rate falling to 27 %.3. No post-event window shows statistically significant out-performance versus a passive hold.4. A 1-day bounce is common (win-rate ~60 %), but it fades quickly; by day-3 the average return turns negative.5. This pattern suggests buying immediately after a ≥ 13 % drop has not been a rewarding strategy for IMTX over the past four years.Parameter notes (auto-selected to streamline the analysis)• Event definition: any trading day with same-day return ≤ –13 % (daily close-to-close). • Price series: adjusted close. • Evaluation window: 30 trading days post-event – a standard horizon to capture both short-term bounce and medium-term drift. • Backtest period: full data range available (2022-01-03 – 2025-12-05).Feel free to explore the module for interactive tables and charts.

Act Now: Short-Term Volatility Presents Opportunities
The selloff in IMTX is a direct consequence of the equity offering, but technicals suggest a potential rebound near the 30-day MA at $10.15. Traders should watch for a breakdown below $8.73, which could trigger further declines toward the 200-day MA. Meanwhile, Amgen (AMGN), the sector leader, has fallen 2.2%, signaling broader biotech sector weakness. Investors should consider short-term options like IMTX20251219P10 for bearish bets or hold for a bounce above $10.15. Immediate action is warranted as the offering’s impact on sentiment remains critical.