U.S. Imposes 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold Bars, Disrupting Global Market

On August 7, the United States unexpectedly announced plans to impose a 39% import tariff on gold bars weighing one kilogram and 100 ounces from Switzerland. This move has the potential to disrupt the global gold bar market and temporarily boost gold prices in New York. The one-kilogram gold bar is the primary form traded on the Comex exchange and is a major export from Switzerland to the United States. Disrupting this supply chain could drive up gold prices in the short term.

The decision to impose tariffs on gold bars was a surprise, as it was previously expected that these key specifications would be exempt. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) clarified in a July 31 response to a Swiss refinery that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a tariffable customs code. This decision contradicts industry expectations of an exemption and adds new pressure to U.S.-Swiss trade relations. The one-kilogram gold bar is the most commonly traded form on the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) and is a major export product from Switzerland to the United States.

According to calculations, in the 12 months ending in June, Switzerland exported 615 billion dollars worth of gold to the United States. If a 39% tariff rate is applied, this would result in an additional 240 billion dollars in tariff liabilities. The core of this tariff controversy lies in the reclassification of customs codes. The CBP, in a response to a clarification request from a Swiss refinery, stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under customs code 7108.13.5500, which is subject to tariffs. Previously, the gold industry generally believed that these gold bars fell under customs code 7108.12.10. The discrepancy between expectations and reality has caught the Swiss refining industry off guard. Multiple Swiss refineries have reported spending months with lawyers to determine which gold products might be exempt. Due to increased uncertainty, two refineries have temporarily reduced or halted gold shipments to the United States.

The new tariff rules directly impact the efficient physical flow of the global gold market. Traditionally, global gold bar trading has followed a triangular route from London to New York via Switzerland. The London market typically uses large gold bars weighing approximately 400 troy ounces (about 12.5 kilograms), while the largest gold futures market, Comex, prefers the more manageable one-kilogram gold bar (roughly the size of a smartphone). As the world's largest gold refining center, Swiss refineries specialize in melting down London's large gold bars and recasting them into the one-kilogram gold bars needed by the New York market. The tariff directly targets the one-kilogram gold bar, effectively blocking a key supply route from Switzerland to New York. This could force the market to seek more costly or less efficient alternatives, reshaping the global physical delivery path of gold bars.

Earlier this year, traders moved large quantities of gold to the United States to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to a historic high in Comex inventory and a temporary shortage in the London market. However, the current tariffs target the gold bar specifications needed to replenish inventory, potentially leading to a "one-way out" situation for Comex inventory and driving up gold prices in New York in the short term. This event occurs against a backdrop of historically high gold prices, which have risen 27% since the end of 2024, reaching a high of 3500 dollars per troy ounce. Concerns about inflation, U.S. government debt levels, and the stability of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency have all contributed to the surge in gold prices. The U.S. tariff measures add another layer of uncertainty to an already heated market.