Imperial Oil Jumps 11.58% In Four Days As Technicals Flash Bullish Signals

Imperial Oil (IMO) rose 3.71% in the latest session, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains and a cumulative 11.58% advance over this period. This momentum reflects robust buying interest, warranting a multi-indicator technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions exhibit a strong bullish sequence. The latest candle closed near its high (81.91 vs. high of 81.95) with minimal upper shadow, indicating sustained buying pressure. The four-day rally forms an ascending pattern with rising lows, establishing immediate support near 79.77 (today’s low). Key resistance is evident at the 82.00 psychological level, with a break potentially targeting the multi-year high of 82.74 (2024-11-25). The absence of reversal patterns like dojis or hammers suggests continued upside bias.
Moving Average Theory
Price (81.91) trades decisively above the 50-day (~72.50), 100-day (~70.80), and 200-day (~69.60) moving averages. The alignment of all three MAs in ascending order (50 > 100 > 200) confirms a major bullish trend. The 50-day MA has consistently acted as dynamic support since mid-May. The widening gap between the 50-day and longer-term averages underscores accelerating bullish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a sustained bullish crossover with the histogram expanding above zero, signaling strong upward acceleration. The KDJ indicator, however, presents caution: K-line (89) and D-line (83) are deeply overbought (>80). While this divergence with MACD’s strength suggests near-term exhaustion risk, the primary trend remains intact absent a bearish KDJ crossover.
Bollinger Bands
Price hugs the upper band (~81.95), indicating overbought territory. This follows a volatility contraction (band squeeze) in early June, which typically precedes directional breakouts. The current band expansion validates the bullish breakout. A mean reversion toward the 20-day midline (~76.50) is plausible short-term, but the upper band breach supports further upside if momentum persists.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 95% in the latest session (705.5k shares) versus the prior 30-day average, confirming conviction behind the breakout. The four-day rally saw progressively higher volume, underscoring buyer dominance. Volume on down days (e.g., 2025-06-04) was notably lighter, suggesting limited selling pressure during consolidations. This alignment reinforces trend sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (82) is deeply overbought (>70), reflecting frothy near-term conditions. Historically, similar RSI peaks (e.g., late 2024) preceded consolidations. While overbought RSI can persist in strong trends, it flags elevated pullback risk. Traders should monitor for divergence against price for reversal signals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 60.27 (2025-04-10) and high of 82.74 (2024-11-25), key retracement levels are identified. The price recently surpassed the 76.4% retracement (79.05), turning it into support. The next upside target is the 100% extension at 82.74. A decisive close above this level may trigger an advance toward the 127.2% extension (~87.40), though RSI constraints advise caution.
Confluence Points
Bullish confluence exists at 79.05–79.77 (Fibonacci 76.4%, recent swing high, and today’s low), making this a critical support zone. Resistance at 82.00–82.74 combines psychological and historical swing highs. Overbought signals (RSI, KDJ, Bollinger Bands) collectively warn of consolidation risk, but MACD’s strength and volume-backed price action favor bullish continuation after a pullback.

Significant Divergences
Notable divergence emerges between overbought oscillators (RSI, KDJ) and momentum indicators (MACD, volume). This reflects underlying strength but elevates near-term correction probability. The absence of bearish price action divergence (e.g., lower highs against indicator peaks) tempers reversal concerns.

Conclusion
Imperial Oil exhibits robust bullish momentum backed by volume, moving averages, and MACD. However, severely overbought oscillators and Bollinger Band positioning suggest imminent consolidation or shallow pullback. Key support near 79.05 must hold to maintain upside toward 82.74. A break below 79.05 may trigger a retest of the 50-day MA (72.50), though the primary trend remains upward absent a decisive close below this level.