Impact of Declining LA Port Cargo Traffic on Supply Chain-Related Stocks

The Port of Los Angeles, a linchpin of U.S. import-export activity, has experienced a dramatic shift in cargo traffic in 2025. While August 2025 saw a robust 958,355 TEUs processed—nearly matching the record-breaking July volume of 1,019,837 TEUs—the port's executive director, Gene Seroka, has warned of a 10% decline in September 2025, projecting around 850,000 TEUs LA port sees 10% import drop through year-end^[1]. This slowdown, driven by pre-holiday inventory saturation and the looming Trump administration tariffs, has created ripples across the logistics and freight sectors. For investors, the question is clear: How will supply chain-related stocks like C.H. Robinson (CHRW), Landstar System (LSTR), and GXO Logistics (GXO) navigate this volatility?

Short-Term Volatility: A Tale of Two Months

The surge in July and August 2025—spurred by companies front-loading cargo to avoid tariffs—initially buoyed logistics stocks. CHRW, for instance, saw its stock price rise 10.31% in September 2025, closing at $137.09, reflecting optimism about its AI-driven logistics platform and global network C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) Stock Chart & Stock Price History^[4]. However, the anticipated September slowdown has introduced uncertainty. LSTR, which relies heavily on spot freight markets, has already seen its stock drop 6.06% in the past month, closing at $126.73 as of September 2025 Landstar System (LSTR) Stock Chart and Price History 2025^[5]. GXO, meanwhile, has remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations between $52.65 and $53.18 in late August and early September LA port sees 10% import drop through year-end^[1].

The divergence in stock performance underscores the sector's sensitivity to macroeconomic signals. For example, the imposition of new U.S. ship fees on China-operated vessels—projected to add $175–$300 per container—could disproportionately affect smaller logistics players. LSTR's recent challenges, including a $4.8 million fraud-related charge in Q1 2025 and elevated insurance costs, position it as a higher-risk bet in this environment Landstar System (LSTR) Stock Chart and Price History 2025^[5].

Strategic Positioning: Tech vs. Traditional Models

GXO Logistics and C.H. Robinson have adopted contrasting strategies to mitigate supply chain disruptions. GXO is leveraging AI-powered optimization and robotics to enhance warehouse efficiency by 30% and reduce transportation costs by 15% GXO Logistics Transformation Strategy Guide | 2025 Outlook^[2]. Its focus on green logistics—cutting carbon emissions by 25%—also aligns with investor demand for sustainability. Moody's recent upgrade of GXO's credit rating to Baa3 reflects confidence in its resilience amid macroeconomic headwinds Two positive votes on logistics at Moody’s: GXO and C.H. Robinson^[3].

C.H. Robinson, on the other hand, has doubled down on its Navisphere® platform, connecting 83,000 customers with 450,000 carriers. The company's use of generative AI to automate 3 million shipping tasks in 2024 highlights its commitment to operational agility GXO Logistics Transformation Strategy Guide | 2025 Outlook^[2]. Despite a 32.19% year-to-date gain in its stock price, CHRW's “Moderate Buy” rating from analysts suggests cautious optimism, as rising tariffs could erode margins for smaller clients C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) Stock Chart & Stock Price History^[4].

Landstar System, by contrast, faces a more precarious outlook. Its reliance on spot freight markets and recent operational setbacks—such as the closure of drayage companies like TGS Logistics—highlight vulnerabilities in its business model LA port sees 10% import drop through year-end^[1]. While LSTR's $473 million cash reserve provides a buffer, its 27.58% year-to-date stock decline signals investor skepticism about its ability to adapt to shifting trade policies Landstar System (LSTR) Stock Chart and Price History 2025^[5].

Tariffs and the Road Ahead

The Trump administration's tariff policies remain a wildcard. As of September 2025, the Port of Los Angeles has already seen a 5% year-over-year drop in May cargo volumes, with further declines expected Two positive votes on logistics at Moody’s: GXO and C.H. Robinson^[3]. For logistics stocks, the key risk lies in the compounding effects of higher shipping costs and reduced consumer demand. Smaller ports, which lack the scale to absorb $175–$300 per container fees, may see cargo diverted to Los Angeles, but this could also lead to oversupply and margin compression for freight companies LA port sees 10% import drop through year-end^[1].

Investors should also monitor the trucking industry's “freight recession,” which has led to the shutdown of key drayage firms. This labor and capacity crunch could temporarily benefit companies with diversified networks, such as CHRW, but pose challenges for LSTR, which operates in more localized markets LA port sees 10% import drop through year-end^[1].

Conclusion: Navigating the Storm

The Port of Los Angeles's cargo traffic trends in 2025 illustrate a sector in flux. While short-term volatility is inevitable, strategic positioning will determine which logistics stocks emerge stronger. GXO and CHRW, with their technology-driven approaches and scalable infrastructure, are better equipped to weather the storm. LSTR, however, faces headwinds that could amplify its stock's downside risk. For investors, the lesson is clear: Prioritize companies that invest in innovation and operational resilience, as these will be the true winners in an era of supply chain uncertainty.